asml's q2 earnings: will solid orders defy trade war headwinds?
amsterdam, Monday, 14 July 2025.
asml holding is set to reveal its q2 results amidst market shifts and trade tensions. analysts predict orders of 4.45 billion euros, with euv lithography contributing 1.99 billion euros. sales are expected to rise to 7.54 billion euros, boosting net profit to 2.01 billion euros. despite a 30% stock drop in the last year, asml anticipates growth in 2025 and 2026. the trump administration’s potential tariffs on eu goods add uncertainty. investors await insights on ai chip demand and asml’s strategy.
Key financial forecasts
ASML’s Q2 earnings preview anticipates a mix of financial results [1]. Order forecasts stand at 4.45 billion euros, a decrease from the 5.57 billion euros recorded a year prior, but an increase from Q1 2025’s 3.94 billion euros [1]. EUV lithography systems are projected to contribute 1.99 billion euros in orders [1]. Quarterly sales are expected to reach 7.54 billion euros, surpassing the 6.24 billion euros from the previous year [1]. Gross profit is forecast at 3.89 billion euros, up from 3.21 billion euros year-over-year, with net profit anticipated at 2.01 billion euros, compared to 1.58 billion euros in the same period last year [1].
Trade war impact and market dynamics
ASML faces potential headwinds from trade tensions, specifically tariffs [1]. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen noted that tariffs imposed by Washington on equipment or parts imported into the U.S. could affect ASML and the broader semiconductor industry [1]. The U.S. is set to impose a 30% tariff on goods from the European Union starting August 1 [1]. These trade dynamics occur amidst uneven demand in the semiconductor sector, characterized by strong demand for AI chips and weaker demand for legacy semiconductors [1].
shifting customer landscape
A shift in ASML’s customer base is emerging [3]. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the revenue contribution from mainland China sharply declined from 47% in the third quarter to 27%, while the United States became ASML’s largest customer, accounting for 28% of revenue [3]. This change reflects strategic adjustments in mainland China’s photolithography equipment procurement and the expansion of the semiconductor industry in the United States, driven by initiatives such as the ‘Chips and Science Act’ [3].
strategic outlook and analyst perspective
ASML maintains a positive outlook, projecting sales between 30 billion and 35 billion euros for the current year and anticipating growth to approximately 44 billion to 60 billion euros by 2030 [1]. The company has identified 2025 and 2026 as growth years [1]. UBS analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies anticipates that AI and smartphone sustainability will remain key factors influencing ASML’s performance next year [1]. However, it’s important to note that ASML had cut its sales forecasts in October 2024 [1].