tariff uncertainty: tsmc and catl earnings in focus

2025-04-11 tsmc

Taipei, Friday, 11 April 2025.
investors are watching tsmc and catl earnings closely. the us government’s tariffs have created uncertainty. tsmc faces a potential 32% tariff on taiwan. this is among the highest in asia. despite this, first-quarter sales grew at the fastest pace since 2022. geopolitical tensions impact the semiconductor and battery sectors. analysts predict earnings revisions due to tariffs. apple could face a $33 billion profit loss. the reports from tsmc and catl will provide insights into supply chain vulnerabilities.

tariff impact on tsmc’s stock

The US government’s tariff policies are causing market volatility [2]. These policies impact multinational corporations’ supply chain stability and export demand [2]. The tariffs, ranging from 10% to 46% on 38 trade partners, force companies to reassess global production [2]. Even though some chips are exempt, tariffs on final products containing them can reduce chip demand [2]. Bernstein Research indicates that chips make up over 15% of the cost of imported machinery and electronics, leading to squeezed profit margins due to tariff叠加效应 [2].

analyst warnings and market reactions

Analysts have lowered first-quarter earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies by 4.2% [2]. Full-year growth forecasts have also been adjusted from 11.3% to a more conservative 7% [2]. Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple could lose $33 billion in profits due to tariffs [2]. Goldman Sachs reports a decrease in capital expenditure growth for S&P 500 companies from 6.8% to 4.1%, with a 9.2% drop in the technology sector [2]. Concerns about an economic recession are growing among Wall Street analysts [2].

trump’s tariff threats and tsmc’s response

President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on TSMC if it doesn’t manufacture in the US [3]. This threat caused TSMC’s stock to fall over 3% on April 9 [3]. Over the past five trading days, TSMC’s stock has fallen by more than 16% [3]. Despite the tariff threats, TSMC’s first-quarter revenue hit a record high [4][6]. Revenue reached approximately 839.25 billion new taiwan dollars, an increase of 41.6% compared to the same period last year [4].

tsmc’s advanced technology and market position

TSMC’s 2nm process is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2025 [4]. The company started accepting 2nm orders in April, demonstrating confidence in its technology [4]. The Zhuke Baoshan Fab 20 plant will be the first to mass-produce 2nm chips, targeting a monthly capacity of 22,000 wafers by the end of the year [4]. The price per wafer for TSMC’s 2nm process is $30,000 [4]. Despite the high cost, demand remains strong [4].

geopolitical strategies and supply chain shifts

The US announced import tariff rates on trade deficit countries on April 3, 2025 [5]. Taiwan faces a 32% tariff [1][5]. This has spurred discussions on supply chain restructuring and innovation [5]. Despite efforts to increase US-based chip production, analysts believe domestic capacity is insufficient [3]. TSMC is expanding its investment in the US, but challenges remain in establishing full-scale production [3]. The focus is shifting towards prioritizing US interests within global supply chains [6].

Bronnen

supply chain earnings outlook