nvidia's blackwell: supply chain boost could defy expectations

2025-02-20 nvidia

santa clara, Thursday, 20 February 2025.
analysts predict nvidia’s blackwell architecture may see higher supply than previously thought. this could significantly increase revenue and market share. nvidia’s stock is currently trading around $139. wedbush analysts highlight that not one of the enterprise ai customers they spoke with showed signs of slowing down their ai investment. this is despite competition from deepseek. analysts see nvidia’s potential upside with price targets as high as $190.

analyst optimism

KeyBanc analysts have increased their price target for Nvidia to $190 from $180, giving an overweight rating [1]. This suggests a potential upside of nearly 37% [7]. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis also supports Nvidia with a $190 price target, adding the stock to the “Tactical Outperform” list [7]. UBS analysts are optimistic about Nvidia’s Q4 results and Q1 guidance, anticipating strong results as the company transitions from Hopper to Blackwell [7].

market trends and competition

The telecom industry is increasingly integrating AI into radio access networks, showing the expanding applications of AI technology [6]. Despite competition from DeepSeek, Wedbush analysts believe the AI revolution will continue to drive demand for Nvidia’s GPUs [2]. They estimate that 10% to 15% of IT budgets will be allocated to AI in 2025 [2]. Capital expenditures from major companies are expected to increase significantly, driven by IT departments building large-scale AI systems [2].

nvidia’s financial outlook

Nvidia’s Q3 earnings reported revenue of $35.1 billion, a 94% increase year-over-year [7]. The data center division experienced substantial growth, up 112% to $30.8 billion [7]. For fiscal year 2025, analysts predict a 134.8% increase in profits, reaching $2.77 per share [7]. Fiscal 2026 EPS is forecast to see a further 43.7% surge, reaching $3.98 [7]. CFO Colette Kress anticipates AI Enterprise revenue to double in fiscal 2025 [7].

upcoming catalysts

Nvidia is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on February 26 [1][4]. Management has set a revenue target of $37.5 billion, while analysts anticipate $38.03 billion and earnings per share of $0.79 [7]. Nvidia will present its latest AI advancements, including the Rubin chip, at the GTC conference from March 17 to 21 in San Jose, California [4]. CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech at GTC on March 18, further highlighting the company’s strategic direction [4].

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nvidia supply blackwell architecture