race to 1nm: is euv's reign over?
taipei, Tuesday, 16 September 2025.
the semiconductor industry is pushing past current extreme ultraviolet lithography to produce even smaller, more powerful 1nm chips. new techniques, like chemical liquid deposition, are being developed to overcome euv limitations and potentially democratize chip manufacturing. asml’s next-gen systems could cost up to $720 million by 2030, while china initiates anti-dumping investigations against us chips amid ongoing us-china talks. this move signifies a major shift in the future of chip technology.
euv’s technological crossroads
The industry is actively seeking alternatives to EUV lithography for sub-2nm chip production because of inherent limitations, including reduced depth of focus and stochastic effects [1]. Chemical liquid deposition and specialized radiation beams in the 6-7nm range are being explored to create 1nm features [1]. ASML, which dominates the EUV market, faces potential disruption as these new methods could provide enhanced precision and lower costs [1]. These innovations may democratize manufacturing amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting market dynamics and stock valuations [1].
asml’s high-na gamble
ASML’s next-generation high-NA systems are projected to cost up to $720 million by 2030 [1]. This substantial investment reflects the company’s commitment to pushing the boundaries of lithography technology [1]. However, the emergence of alternative methods could challenge the dominance of EUV and the return on investment for ASML’s high-NA systems [1]. Investors should closely monitor the progress of these competing technologies and their potential to disrupt ASML’s market position [GPT].
china’s semiconductor strategy
China has initiated anti-dumping investigations into US chips, coinciding with ongoing US-China talks [2]. This action signals a strategic effort to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry and reduce reliance on foreign technology [2]. While SMIC’s costs are reportedly 50% higher than TSMC’s, the company operates with full independence [2]. China is focusing on developing 3nm and 5nm chips [2]. Reduced chip imports into China could heavily impact the EU semiconductor market [4].
investment considerations
The pursuit of 1nm chips and beyond presents both opportunities and risks for investors. Companies that can successfully develop and implement these advanced manufacturing techniques stand to gain a significant competitive advantage [1]. Monitoring companies like TSMC and ASML is crucial, as their strategies and technological advancements will shape the future of the semiconductor industry [1]. Geopolitical factors, such as trade tensions and government support for domestic chip production, will also play a significant role in investment decisions [2][4].