tsmc defies asml's warning with record q2 earnings
Taipei, Tuesday, 5 August 2025.
tsmc announced record second quarter earnings of $30.1 billion, despite asml cutting its guidance. The contrast underscores the intricacies of the ai chip supply chain. tsmc’s high performance computing sector drove growth, accounting for 60% of its revenue, up from 52% the previous year. the company forecasts a 30% revenue increase for the full year, signaling confidence amidst market uncertainties. investors should watch this divergence as a key indicator of market segmentation and potential shifts in demand.
key financial metrics
TSMC’s second quarter 2025 results showed a gross margin of 58.6% and an operating margin of 49.6% [1]. Net income for the quarter reached $2.47 billion (NT$398.3 billion) [1]. ASML, a key supplier to TSMC, reported second quarter net sales of €7.7 billion with a gross margin of 53.7% and net income of €2.3 billion [1]. However, ASML has lowered its third quarter sales guidance to between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52% [1]. This contrast highlights different positions within the semiconductor supply chain [1].
softbank increases ai investments
SoftBank Group is increasing its investments in AI hardware, significantly increasing its stakes in Nvidia and TSMC [2][5]. By the end of March 2025, SoftBank’s investment in Nvidia had risen from $1 billion to $3 billion. It also established new positions of approximately $3.3 billion in TSMC and $1.7 billion in Oracle [2][5]. These investments occur as Nvidia’s market capitalization exceeds $4 trillion and TSMC approaches $1 trillion, demonstrating confidence in the AI hardware sector [2][5].
manufacturing capacity and expansion
TSMC has a substantial capital expenditure plan for 2025, allocating $38 billion to $42 billion, with nearly half dedicated to manufacturing in the United States [1]. This expansion is aimed at meeting the increasing demand for AI chips, which Deloitte forecasts will be a $150 billion market in 2025 and grow to $500 billion by 2028 [1]. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is reportedly lobbying TSMC and other companies to participate in a $1 trillion AI manufacturing center project in Arizona [2][5].
geopolitical and market risks
ASML has expressed concerns regarding macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and potential U.S. tariffs of 30%, which impact its ability to confirm growth for 2026 [1]. These factors introduce risks for capital equipment suppliers [1]. Despite these concerns, TSMC is moving forward with capacity expansion, indicating a strong belief in its market leadership and the continued demand for its advanced manufacturing capabilities [1]. Morgan Stanley analysts suggest a recent deal between Samsung and Tesla will only affect TSMC revenue by 1% [6].