asml faces strong headwinds: what's next for investors?
Veldhoven, Monday, 31 March 2025.
asml Holding nv faces a bearish trend. The stock price is below its 5, 20, and 50-day exponential moving averages, signaling strong selling pressure. Analysts still forecast an earnings increase of $2.49 per share this quarter and $5.84 per share this year. Export controls are impacting demand, with sales in China expected to decline 20% in 2025. Despite this, asml reaffirmed its 2025 sales forecast of 30 to 35 billion euros, driven by demand for euv lithography systems.
bearish signals in asml stock
ASML Holding NV’s stock currently trades at $674.58 [1]. Technical analysis indicates a strong bearish trend, with the share price below its 5, 20, and 50-day exponential moving averages [1]. This selling pressure suggests a risk of further bearish movement [1]. The 50-day exponential moving average stands at $722.44, and the 200-day simple moving average is $767.20, both signaling sell recommendations [1]. ASML’s score is 47, which is 6% below its historic median score of 50 [1].
export controls and market impact
Export controls are contributing to weaker demand for ASML [2]. The company anticipates a 20% decline in sales in China during 2025 [2]. These restrictions impact a growing number of Chinese entities, which accounted for 36% of ASML’s sales last year [2]. ASML acknowledges the increasing complexity of these restrictions and the potential risks they pose [2]. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including the push for technological sovereignty and export controls, are causing some customers to be cautious and to curb capital expenditure [2].
analyst perspectives and future outlook
Despite current headwinds, analysts predict earnings per share to increase by $2.49 this quarter and $5.84 this year [1]. ASML has reaffirmed its sales forecast for 2025, expecting to reach between 30 and 35 billion euros [2]. This forecast is driven by strong demand for EUV lithography systems, essential for manufacturing advanced computer chips [2]. Historically, ASML Holding NV stock has risen by an average of 32.2% over the next 52 weeks, based on the past 29 years of stock performance [4].
strategic moves and industry context
ASML is making strategic adjustments to navigate the evolving landscape. The company is appointing former Dutch Minister Karien van Gennip to its supervisory board [2]. Other political figures have also recently joined ASML, including former French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and former Dutch Deputy Minister Frank Heemskerk [2]. Meanwhile, the global wafer foundry 2.0 market is projected to reach $298 billion in 2025, with TSMC estimated to hold a 37% market share [3]. These factors highlight the dynamic environment in which ASML operates.