tsmc surges as foreign investors buy big on chip demand
Taipei, Saturday, 19 July 2025.
foreign investors are making significant moves in taiwan’s stock market. they’ve purchased over 10,000 shares of tsmc, totaling nt$22.3 billion. this investment follows high demand for h20 and mi308 chips. the aggressive buying indicates strong confidence in tsmc’s future revenue. the stock market closed at 23,383.13 points. this activity highlights tsmc’s vital position in the global semiconductor supply chain. the large investment signals a positive outlook for international investors. nvidia’s h20 and amd’s mi308 chips are expected to be unbanned. this will allow them to re-enter the chinese market.
stock performance and q2 results
Tsmc’s stock price has seen significant activity, mirroring its historical high of 1160 yuan before closing at 1155 yuan, a 2.21% increase [1]. This surge is supported by tsmc’s robust q2 performance, with revenue reaching nt$933.9 billion and a net profit after tax of approximately nt$398.27 billion, resulting in earnings per share of nt$15.36 [1]. These figures represent the company’s best single-quarter performance to date [1]. Foreign investors have shifted from selling to buying, acquiring 19,000 shares worth nt$22.3 billion on july 18 alone, making tsmc their top pick [1].
analyst outlook and target price adjustments
Following tsmc’s positive outlook, several foreign investment firms have revised their target prices upward [2]. Morningstar has set the highest target at nt$1,800, while citigroup has increased its target to nt$1,400 [6]. Morgan stanley raised its target to nt$1,388 and named tsmc as a top pick [6]. Goldman sachs adjusted its target to nt$1,370, and nomura increased it to nt$1,310 [6]. Hsbc and daiwa capital have also raised their targets to nt$1,305 and nt$1,250, respectively [6]. These adjustments reflect strong confidence in tsmc’s future prospects [2][6].
key growth drivers and capacity
Morgan stanley identifies key catalysts for tsmc’s stock, including its 2026 coWoS capacity plans, outcomes of wafer pricing negotiations, and developments in semiconductor tariff policies [6]. Tsmc’s 3nm and 4nm production capacities are expected to remain tight through 2026, potentially leading to price increases [6]. Morgan stanley forecasts a 20% revenue increase for tsmc in 2026, driven by cloud ai chip revenue growth, intel’s outsourcing of cpu and gpu production to tsmc’s 2nm process, and expansion in the chinese ai market [6].
revenue forecasts and market dynamics
Foreign investment firms anticipate substantial revenue growth for tsmc. A us-based firm projects a 33% increase in full-year revenue, with over 20% growth expected next year and a gross margin above 53% [2]. They also anticipate price increases of over 10% at tsmc’s us facilities and 3% to 5% at other plants [2]. Despite potential headwinds from exchange rates and tariffs, tsmc has revised its 2025 usd revenue growth forecast upward, primarily due to stronger-than-expected ai demand [6].