tsmc's october earnings: what to expect as nvidia waits for 2nm

2025-09-02 tsmc

Taipei, Tuesday, 2 September 2025.
tsmc, the world’s largest chip foundry, will announce earnings on october 16. analysts predict continued growth, but nvidia won’t adopt tsmc’s 2nm process until 2027. tsmc’s q2 earnings already exceeded expectations, with eps at $2.47 against a consensus of $2.13. revenue surged 44.4% year-over-year to $30.07 billion, beating estimates. the upcoming report will shed light on future strategies, especially regarding the 2nm node and its impact on major clients. tsmc’s market dominance is clear, controlling 70% of the foundry market.

TSMC anticipates q3 2025 revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion [1]. estimates for q4 2025 project an eps of $2.41 [1]. the company’s foundry dominance is evident, capturing 70% of the market, while samsung holds 7.2% and smic has 5.1% [8]. tsmc’s revenue in q2 2025 alone exceeded $30 billion [8]. nearly 75% of tsmc’s sales are derived from 7nm nodes and below, with 3nm contributing approximately 25% of wafer revenue [8]. these figures highlight tsmc’s strong position and technological advancement in the semiconductor industry [GPT].

2nm production and nvidia’s delayed adoption

tsmc is progressing with its 2nm process technology, expected to enter mass production in the second half of this year [2]. initial clients for the 2nm process include apple, amd, broadcom, mediatek, intel, and qualcomm [2]. nvidia, despite its ai-driven growth, won’t adopt tsmc’s 2nm process until 2027 [2]. by 2027, tsmc anticipates over ten new clients, including amazon and google, to adopt the 2nm process [2]. tsmc’s 2nm process is projected to have a monthly capacity of 45,000 to 50,000 wafers by the end of this year, exceeding 100,000 wafers next year [2].

implications for tsmc’s stock

the delay in nvidia’s adoption of the 2nm process could have short-term stock implications for tsmc [alert! ‘requires financial analysis’]. however, tsmc’s diverse client base and increasing demand for advanced nodes mitigate this risk [2][8]. the expected increase in foundry prices by 5% to 10% for advanced semiconductor processes in 2026 could boost tsmc’s revenue and profitability [7]. nvidia has already adjusted gpu pricing to account for rising wafer costs [8]. this suggests that major clients are willing to absorb cost increases, benefiting tsmc’s financial outlook [GPT].

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