samsung scores tesla chip deal amid tsmc's a16 struggles

2025-07-30 tsmc

Taipei, Wednesday, 30 July 2025.
samsung’s $16.5 billion deal with tesla for ai chips marks a pivotal shift in the semiconductor landscape. tsmc’s earnings report highlights this win for samsung, potentially securing its position as the second-largest chip supplier. this comes as tsmc faces challenges with its a16 chip and overall technology strategy. the deal could impact tsmc’s market share and revenue, making it a key development for investors to watch. analysts estimate samsung’s sf2 process, crucial for tesla’s ai6 chips, has a yield of only 40-50%.

tesla’s ai6 chip and samsung’s manufacturing edge

Tesla’s AI6 chip, crucial for its autonomous driving and robotics initiatives, is expected to leverage Samsung’s 2nm process [4][7]. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates Samsung’s SF2 process has a yield of 40-50%, lower than TSMC’s N2 at over 70% and Intel’s 18A at 50-55% [3]. Despite the lower yield, Samsung’s adoption of GAA technology, similar to its SF3 process, could aid in mass production [3]. However, the ability to meet production timelines remains uncertain [3].

tsmc’s response and market leadership

TSMC, the dominant player in the foundry market with a 67% share, faces increasing competition from Samsung [7]. The loss of the Tesla order could pressure TSMC’s future revenue projections and market valuation [1]. TSMC’s approach to technology development, described as customer-centric, contrasts with competitors [1]. AMD’s CEO, Lisa Su, noted that TSMC’s chip costs from its Arizona plant will be 5-20% higher than those from Taiwan, but this is a worthwhile premium for supply chain resilience [4].

samsung’s strategic us expansion

Samsung is investing $7 billion to build an advanced chip packaging facility in the U.S., aiming to gain an early advantage in the American market [5]. This move allows Samsung to potentially capture clients like Nvidia and AMD [5]. The new Texas factory will be dedicated to producing Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chips [4]. Elon Musk will personally be involved in optimizing production efficiency at the Samsung facility [7]. This deal is a significant win, as Samsung’s Taylor factory has struggled to attract major clients [7].

geopolitical factors and supply chain resilience

Geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities are driving companies to re-evaluate near-shore manufacturing [4]. AMD views having a ‘plan b’ in the U.S. as crucial for mitigating supply disruption risks [4]. The U.S. government is set to release the results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports [4]. South Korea is seeking partnerships with the U.S. in the chip and shipbuilding sectors as part of trade negotiations [7]. These partnerships aim to potentially reduce or eliminate prospective U.S. tariffs [7].

samsung’s stock surge and future outlook

News of the Tesla deal has boosted investor confidence in Samsung’s foundry business [2]. Samsung’s stock has increased by approximately 10% since the announcement, contributing to a July gain of over 20% [2]. This puts the stock on track for its best month in over two decades [2]. The deal is projected to alleviate losses in Samsung’s foundry business, which reportedly exceeded ₩5 trillion ($3.6 billion) in the first half of the year [7]. Samsung expects to share further details about the Tesla agreement during its earnings call [2].

Bronnen

tsmc earnings samsung tesla