asml sounds alarm: will geopolitics stall chip innovation?
Veldhoven, Monday, 7 April 2025.
asml, a pivotal player in chip manufacturing, warns that escalating geopolitical tensions and export controls are significantly hampering semiconductor innovation. the dutch giant highlights that these restrictions are creating obstacles. These obstacles impede the progress of advanced chip technologies, potentially jeopardizing asml’s growth and market dominance. asml anticipates a 20% drop in china sales in 2025. This decline underscores the tangible impact of export controls, raising concerns about the future of global semiconductor advancements.
Export controls impact
ASML’s annual report highlights that export controls are weakening customer demand [2]. Continuous export restrictions to China, led by the U.S., are impacting ASML [2]. An increasing number of Chinese entities, which accounted for 36% of ASML’s sales last year, now face restrictions [2]. ASML faces ongoing risks from increasingly complex restrictions and potential countermeasures [2]. This uncertainty in the macro economy, including technological sovereignty and export controls, has made some customers cautious about capital expenditures [2].
Financial outlook
Despite export control challenges, ASML reaffirmed its sales forecast for 2025 [2]. The company expects sales to range between €30 billion and €35 billion [2]. This is higher than the €28.3 billion in 2024 [2]. The forecast is fueled by the artificial intelligence boom driving demand for its EUV lithography systems [2]. These systems are essential for manufacturing advanced computer chip circuits [2].
Strategic partnerships and r&d
ASML is actively involved in strategic partnerships to enhance its technological capabilities [5]. ASML and imec have signed a partnership to boost sub-2 nanometer research and development in Europe [5]. ASML, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and TU Eindhoven initiated the CollChain project on September 19, 2024, to optimize high-tech supply chains [6]. These collaborations aim to foster innovation and strengthen ASML’s position in the semiconductor industry [6].
Leadership and governance
ASML is making changes to its leadership and governance structure [2]. Former Dutch Minister of Social Affairs Karien van Gennip will be appointed to the company’s supervisory board [2]. Recently, former French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was appointed as a special advisor to the executive committee [2]. Former Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs of France Frank Heemskerk was appointed as global affairs head [2]. These appointments bring diverse expertise to ASML’s leadership team [2].
Geopolitical concerns
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that the semiconductor industry relies on collaboration and innovation [1]. He noted that rising geopolitical tensions are undermining the cooperative environment essential to its progress [1]. ASML is concerned about geopolitical tensions and export controls [4]. These factors are seen as hindering innovation in the semiconductor industry [1][4]. An article from April 7, 2025, discusses the rising geopolitical risks and the importance of semiconductor supply chain security [5].