asml: is the chip giant overvalued?
Amsterdam, Friday, 19 September 2025.
asml’s stock performance is under scrutiny. analysts are weighing its price-to-earnings ratio against industry rivals. currently, asml’s pe ratio stands at 32.7x, with earnings of €9.42 billion and a market capitalization of €307.52 billion. its estimated fair value is €673, but it is trading above this at €793.7. bank of america recently boosted its price target for asml to €941, previously €724, citing a less concentrated demand due to nvidia and intel deals. is this a buying opportunity or a bubble?
peer comparison
asml’s valuation is a key point of discussion among investors [2]. its price-to-earnings (pe) ratio is 32.7x, while the average pe ratio of its peers is 39.8x [2]. asm international has a pe ratio of 46.4x with an estimated growth of 20.96% [2]. be semiconductor industries has a pe ratio of 56.6x with an estimated growth of 27.68% [2]. applied materials has a pe ratio of 22.1x with an estimated growth of 8.89% [2]. kla has a pe ratio of 34x with an estimated growth of 8.10% [2]. the european semiconductor industry average pe ratio is 32.1x [2].
analyst perspectives
analysts’ views on asml are mixed [2]. the consensus fair value from 31 analysts is €765.26, indicating it is 3.7% overvalued [2]. the 12-month average price target from analysts is €769.45, showing a dispersion of 12.96% [2]. bank of america increased its price target for asml from €724 to €941, maintaining a buy recommendation [7]. bank of america anticipates a substantial revenue acceleration in 2027, fueled by new chip factories in the us by intel, samsung, and tsmc [7].
market dynamics and future growth
asml’s stock has seen significant movement [3]. in september 2025, the stock rose approximately 20% [3]. this increase occurred despite uncertain outlooks and political tensions [3]. bank of america expects asml’s revenue to increase to €39.2 billion in 2027, up from a previous estimate of €35.8 billion [7]. this projection assumes stronger demand from intel and sk hynix [7]. the dutch government’s limitations on exporting certain machines to china add a layer of complexity to asml’s market position [3].
investment considerations
investors should consider several factors when evaluating asml [4]. jpmorgan private bank remains positive about the stock market rally, despite concerns about high valuations [4]. historically, fed rate cuts without a recession often lead to double-digit price gains in the us and worldwide [4]. technology now represents a third of the market capitalization, compared to 15% twenty years ago, supported by higher margins and stronger cash flows [4]. asml’s return versus the s&p shows asml with +18.96% and the s&p with +18.04% [1].