tsmc struggles to control ai chip exports amid new us tariffs

2025-05-01 tsmc

taipei, Thursday, 1 May 2025.
tsmc is facing significant hurdles in preventing advanced ai chips from reaching china. This challenge is worsened by a new u.s. section 232 probe into semiconductor imports. tsmc’s inability to track where its chips end up could lead to fines exceeding $1 billion. Adding to the complexity, the u.s. commerce department is investigating semiconductor imports, potentially leading to tariffs on devices like smartphones and laptops. This could further strain tsmc’s international operations and market access.

Financial impact on tsmc

These challenges could have significant financial implications for tsmc [1]. The company’s stock is already trading within a daily range of 899.00 to 908.00 twd [3]. Potential fines exceeding $1 billion could further affect investor confidence [1]. The inability to control the downstream use of its chips may result in additional regulatory penalties, reputational damage, and the revocation of critical export licenses [1]. These factors collectively contribute to uncertainty surrounding tsmc’s financial stability.

Geopolitical risks and market dynamics

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China add another layer of complexity [5]. These tensions include new tariffs on Chinese-made semiconductors and export restrictions imposed by China on materials vital for ai chip manufacturing [5]. These restrictions impact tsmc’s supply chain and potentially slow down ai chip production [5]. An analyst at techinsights noted that tsmc is currently navigating uncharted waters amid this volatile situation [5]. Tsmc is now evaluating alternative supply chains, with a review expected by mid-May 2025 [5].

Competitive landscape and technological advancements

The rise of chinese ai capabilities poses a significant challenge to tsmc’s market leadership [4]. Huawei has begun shipping ai server cabinet systems with performance exceeding nvidia’s [5]. Nvidia’s ceo, huang, has called for the trump administration to adjust ai chip export rules, acknowledging china’s rapid advancements in the field [4]. Deepseek r2, a new ai model, is set to launch in may and will rely entirely on huawei’s ascend 910b chips, reducing dependence on nvidia [6]. This shift could further intensify competition in the ai chip market.

Gold demand in technology sector

Despite the challenges, the demand for gold in the technology sector remains relatively stable [2]. In the first quarter of 2025, demand was flat year-over-year at 80 metric tons [2]. Electronics demand rose by 2 percent year-over-year, reaching 67 metric tons, driven by ai applications [2]. Gold demand in major electronics fabrication hubs saw mixed results, with mainland china and hong kong sar increasing by 5 percent, while the u.s. experienced a -1 percent decrease [2]. These trends suggest a continued, albeit uneven, demand for semiconductors amid the geopolitical and economic pressures.

Bronnen

supply chain export compliance