asml forecasts major growth by 2030, powered by ai

2025-07-29 asml

Veldhoven, Tuesday, 29 July 2025.
asml, a key player in semiconductor equipment, projects revenues soaring to between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030. This surge is expected to come with gross margins between 56% and 60%. Driving this growth is the ever-increasing demand from the artificial intelligence sector. The company is currently qualifying its High NA tools, with volume manufacturing targeted for 2026 or 2027. However, euv growth expectations have been adjusted downwards slightly, from 40% to 30%.

asml’s market position and technological advancements

ASML’s strong market position is underpinned by its technological leadership in the semiconductor equipment sector [5]. The company’s expertise in advanced chip manufacturing tools, particularly those used in leading-edge wafer fabrication, gives it a competitive edge [5]. ASML is currently in the research and development customer qualification phase with its EXE:5000 tool [1]. The next phase involves qualifying the tool for high-volume manufacturing insertion, with the key milestone being the tool’s maturity expected later this year and next year [1]. This positions ASML favorably for long-term growth and dominance in the semiconductor industry.

financial performance and analyst perspectives

ASML’s second-quarter results demonstrated robust financial health. The company’s revenue for the quarter increased by 23% year-over-year, reaching €7.692 billion, surpassing the expected €7.505 billion [3]. Earnings per share also exceeded expectations, coming in at €5.90 [3]. Analysts at New Street Research have upgraded ASML to a buy rating, setting a price target of €790, highlighting the company’s strong long-term positioning in the semicap sector [5]. Despite market consensus projecting only a 2% revenue increase for ASML next year, New Street believes this is too conservative [5].

factors influencing investor sentiment

Several factors influence investor sentiment towards ASML. Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including concerns about tariffs and their impact on GDP growth, create some hesitation among customers [1]. This uncertainty leads to customers waiting to confirm their demand until they have a clearer understanding of the economic landscape [1]. Additionally, ASML’s stock performance is affected by broader market trends and news [4]. For example, ASML’s stock price experienced a downturn following the earnings report due to uncertainty and concerns about potential tariffs [4].

global reach and demand in china

The lifting of restrictions on chip design software is a positive development for the entire ecosystem, strengthening its global reach [1]. ASML has experienced healthy demand in China for several years and does not anticipate a sudden decline in demand in 2026 [1]. Key clients of ASML include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), Samsung, and Intel (INTC) [3]. ASML’s CFO, Roger J.M. Dassen, noted that while the company does not provide projections for 2026, customers are extremely bullish about the need for more EUV layers [1].

stock market reaction

On July 28, 2025, ASML Holding stock (ASML:AMS) closed at €628.30, marking a significant increase of €23.40 or 3.87% [7]. However, the stock has experienced a year-to-date decrease of 22.08% [7]. This positive movement reflects investor confidence in the company’s potential, driven by strong financial results and positive analyst ratings [3][5]. The stock’s performance is also influenced by trends in the broader semiconductor industry and global economic factors [1]. These factors include demand for semiconductors in various applications, including AI, and geopolitical considerations [1].

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ASML revenue Gross margin