nvidia's ai edge: analysts brace for earnings volatility
Santa Clara, Friday, 21 February 2025.
nvidia’s stock faces increased scrutiny as analysts revise estimates before the earnings report. these revisions reflect uncertainty in ai chip demand and supply chain stability. despite a 1-year return of over 100% and a 5-year return exceeding 1800%, analysts are wary. investors should monitor these revisions closely. nvidia’s upcoming earnings report could trigger significant stock swings. The report, due February 26, is expected to show record revenues around $42 billion for the quarter, a 112% increase year-over-year.
key factors influencing stock
Several factors influence predictions for Nvidia’s stock over the next few weeks. These include Nvidia’s recent performance, upcoming events, market sentiment, and technical factors [3]. Nvidia’s stock closed at approximately $139.23 on February 19, 2025 [3]. Its trajectory largely depends on the fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter earnings report, which is scheduled for release after market close on February 26, 2025 [3].
analyst expectations and potential scenarios
Analysts project Nvidia to report record revenue of approximately $129.3 billion for fiscal year 2025 [3]. The fourth quarter alone is expected to reach nearly $42 billion, marking a 112% year-over-year increase [3]. The focus will be on the guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 [3]. Optimistic analysts at Piper Sandler and Bank of America see a 25.691=25.76% and 36.465=36.46% upside from current levels, respectively [3].
market sentiment and technical analysis
Nvidia’s stock has experienced volatility [3]. It fell 11% from its January 2025 high of $152.89 but has risen 136.7% over the past year [3]. A rebound from a recent low of $118.58 in early February to $139.23 demonstrates resilience [3]. Traders on X consider $135–$143 a critical range [3]. A break above $143 could target $150–$160, while a drop below $135 might test $130 or lower [3].
broader market conditions
Broader market conditions, including signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and rising inflation concerns, could pressure tech stocks [3]. However, Nvidia’s high-profit margins, projected around 70%, offer a buffer compared to competitors [3]. Wedbush analysts remain optimistic about ai stocks [5]. They predict Apple will reach a $4 trillion market capitalization first, followed by Nvidia [5].
potential stock price movement
In a bullish scenario, if Nvidia’s earnings exceed expectations, the stock could surge [3]. A strong first-quarter 2026 guidance and dispelled demand concerns could drive this rally [3]. A break above $143 might push the stock to $150 within days and potentially reach $160 by mid-March [3]. Conversely, disappointing guidance or renewed concerns about ai investment returns could cause the stock to drop below $135 [3]. This could test $130 or even $125, near the 200-day moving average of $124.78 [3].