nvidia exits china forecasts amid us export restrictions
Washington, Friday, 13 June 2025.
nvidia will no longer include revenue from China in its financial forecasts. This is due to increased us restrictions on chip exports. ceo Jensen Huang announced the change. The restrictions limit nvidia’s ability to sell advanced chips in China. Nvidia previously missed out on $2.5 billion in revenue because of these export controls. The company also took a $4.5 billion charge. Wedbush Securities reports Huawei may gain a good portion of Nvidia’s business as a result of the H20 ban.
Market impact and analysis
Nvidia’s decision to exclude China from its forecasts reflects the escalating tensions in the semiconductor industry due to trade restrictions [1]. This strategic shift could significantly impact nvidia’s revenue potential and market position [1]. China’s advancements in AI models, now only three to six months behind the US, highlight the importance of this market [4][5]. The US government’s measures to control chip exports aim to slow China’s progress in AI and chip manufacturing, but they also create challenges for US companies like Nvidia [4].
Competitive landscape shifts
The ban on Nvidia’s H20 chip could give Huawei a competitive edge in the Chinese market [1]. Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities suggests Huawei stands to gain a significant portion of Nvidia’s business [1]. This shift underscores the complex dynamics of the US-China tech rivalry, where export controls intended to limit China’s access to advanced technology may inadvertently boost domestic competitors [1]. The US government is aware of this risk [4].
us-china trade negotiations
The US and China have engaged in trade talks to address export control issues [3]. Recent discussions in London aimed to build on the consensus reached in Geneva, focusing on easing trade barriers [3][6]. Trump administration officials indicated a willingness to relax some semiconductor export restrictions in exchange for China easing restrictions on rare earth exports [3][6]. However, the US has been clear it will not loosen export controls on the most advanced Nvidia chips [3].
Nvidia’s strategic moves
Jensen Huang stated Nvidia’s forecasts would no longer include the China market, signaling a significant strategic adjustment [1]. Despite these challenges, Nvidia is expanding its presence in Europe, with plans to build a cloud computing platform for industrial AI applications [1]. This move suggests Nvidia is diversifying its market focus to mitigate the impact of restricted access to the Chinese market [1]. Nvidia’s first quarter revenue in 2025 increased by 69 percent, demonstrating continued growth despite challenges [1].