tsmc's taipei shares stumble despite adr record high amidst us-china tension

2025-06-30 tsmc

taipei, Monday, 30 June 2025.
Despite tsmc’s adr reaching a record high, its shares in taipei declined by 0.93%, a nt$10 drop. This divergence arose from investor anxiety regarding ongoing us-china talks. However, experts predict a likely rebound, advising investors to remain calm. The contrasting performance highlights the stock’s sensitivity to geopolitical factors and market sentiment within taiwan.

adr surge amid us optimism

On June 27, positive signals from washington regarding potential agreements with china and other trade partners boosted us markets [3]. This momentum propelled the four major us indices into positive territory [3]. Nvidia, a key player in the ai sector, reached a new high, increasing by 1.76% to $157.75 [3]. Simultaneously, tsmc’s adr rose by 2.04%, closing at a record high of $228.57 [3].

local stock performance contrasts adr

Contrary to the adr’s strong performance, tsmc’s shares in taipei experienced a downturn on june 28 [1]. The stock price briefly dipped to nt$1070, a decrease of nt$10 or 0.93% [1]. By 9:13 am, the stock fluctuated around nt$1075, marking a nt$5 or 0.46% decline [1]. This discrepancy highlights the differing sentiments between the us and taiwanese markets regarding tsmc [1].

expert analysis of market dynamics

Cathay Securities Consultant Cai Minghan attributes the divergence to persistent market uncertainties surrounding trade agreements and reciprocal tariffs [1]. International factors, such as canada’s suspension of digital tax negotiations, contribute to a cautious investment climate in taiwan [1]. Despite this, Cai Minghan suggests that the taiwan stock market’s weakness is not isolated and anticipates a potential rebound, supported by the continued rise of us tech stocks, including nasdaq, nvidia, and tsmc’s adr [1].

analyst’s perspective on tsmc’s outlook

Wei Mingyu, an analyst at Ruiyuan Investment Consulting, notes that us stocks reached new rebound highs due to optimism about economic and trade developments [1]. The taiex experienced a pullback of approximately 180 points, influenced by tsmc’s inability to mirror its adr’s gains [1]. Wei suggests this pullback is a normal correction after a short-term rally and expects the market to digest the impact of a rapidly appreciating new taiwan dollar and profit-taking by domestic institutional investors [1].

broader market concerns in taiwan

The taiex faced downward pressure, dropping over 100 points, with tsmc shares falling by nt$5 to nt$1075 [4][5]. Concerns over potential exchange rate losses for taiwanese companies and an increase in net short positions by foreign investors further dampened market sentiment [7]. As of the morning of june 30, the weighted index stood at 22405.97, a decrease of 174.11 points, with a turnover of nt$182.7 billion [7].

currency appreciation and investor sentiment

Despite positive performance in us and asian markets, taiwan’s stock market exhibited relative weakness, primarily due to the recent appreciation of the new taiwan dollar [7]. Concerns about exchange rate losses in the first half of the year’s financial reports and a surge in foreign investors’ net short positions to a record high of 52,681 contracts contributed to this downturn [7]. The new taiwan dollar has appreciated by 14.15% against the us dollar since the second quarter [2].

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