asml's future: bank of america adjusts target amid chip sector shifts

2025-07-02 asml

amsterdam, Wednesday, 2 July 2025.
bank of america has revised its asml price target to €759, a shift from the previous €795. this adjustment reflects concerns about foundry and logic demand anticipated in 2026. the bank forecasts a decrease in high na euv scanner demand. intel’s production hurdles are also expected to impact asml’s earnings per share in 2026 and 2027. despite these near-term challenges, bank of america maintains a positive long-term outlook for asml. they project a potential earning of €40 per share by 2030, even with export restrictions.

revised earnings estimates

Bank of America (BofA) has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for ASML for the calendar years 2026 and 2027, reducing them by 4% to 5% [3]. This revision reflects several potential risks to ASML’s performance [3][4]. These risks include a projected decrease in high-NA EUV revenue in 2026, with expected shipments of only four units compared to a previous estimate of eight [3]. Furthermore, there is anticipation of slightly lower revenue from China and uncertainty surrounding demand from key chip manufacturers [3]. Broader market uncertainties and production issues at Intel also contribute to the revised outlook [2].

factors affecting asml’s outlook

Several factors contribute to the revised expectations for ASML. Intel’s ongoing challenges before the 18A process launch, and Samsung’s DRAM uncertainties, particularly concerning NVIDIA certifications, create headwinds [3]. Potential further export restrictions to China, impacting clients like CXMT and SMIC, also pose a risk [3]. Bank of America suggests that near-term demand for ASML’s EUV tools may be affected by the slow adoption of high-NA technology by major customers such as TSMC and Samsung [3]. SK Hynix’s potential shift towards 3D DRAM may further dampen demand [3].

market position and competitive landscape

ASML faces evolving dynamics in the lithography market. An Intel executive suggested a decreasing importance of lithography in advanced chip manufacturing [2][4]. This perspective aligns with the rise of advanced transistor designs that add layers vertically, reducing reliance on traditional lithography resolution [4]. Despite these challenges, ASML maintains a strong position, with Bank of America noting that its valuation remains attractive at 19.6 times the estimated 2026 enterprise value to EBITDA, which is below its 10-year median of 22 [3][6]. Recent news also highlights advancements in Chinese lithography, intensifying competition [8].

long-term ai chip demand

Despite short-term concerns, Bank of America remains optimistic about ASML’s long-term prospects, particularly driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) sector [2][3][4]. They project that AI chip demand will surge from $253 billion this year, constituting 35% of global chip demand, to $794 billion by 2030 [3]. This growth in AI is expected to increase the demand for lithography equipment, as AI chips often require the latest and most advanced manufacturing technologies [4]. BofA estimates ASML could reach €40 earnings per share by 2030, with a potential upside to €50, even considering export bans [1][3].

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asml price target