asml poised for profit rebound despite margin headwinds
Veldhoven, Tuesday, 15 July 2025.
asml, the chipmaking equipment giant, is set to announce its q2 earnings on july 16th. analysts predict a strong profit rebound with eps reaching €5.19 on €7.51 billion in revenue. gross margins are, however, expected to slightly decrease to 51.9% from 54%. despite this dip, asml anticipates a positive free cash flow of around €2 billion. the options market is bracing for a potential 7% swing in the stock price following the earnings release. the company’s full-year revenue guidance remains between €30 and €35 billion.
analyst expectations and market reaction
Analysts covering ASML have set an average price target of €765 [1]. The options market indicates that traders are preparing for a significant move in ASML’s stock price, potentially as high as 7% in either direction, on the day of the earnings announcement [1]. Investors are advised to monitor management’s tone during the earnings call and to consider long-term prospects rather than focusing solely on the immediate quarterly results [1].
strategic considerations for investors
Long-term investors should pay close attention to several key indicators [1]. These include new machine shipments, order growth, and sustained profit margins. The overall outlook for the year is also critical [1]. ASML’s stock has traded sideways for much of the year, fluctuating between its 50-week and 200-week moving averages [1]. This pattern suggests a period of consolidation as the market awaits clearer signals about the company’s future performance [GPT].
trade tensions and policy impacts
The broader economic landscape introduces additional factors that could influence ASML’s stock [7]. Trump’s recent statements include a plan to impose a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico and the EU starting August 1st [7]. Furthermore, a proposed 50% tariff on all copper imported into the US could have implications for the semiconductor supply chain [7]. These potential trade actions add a layer of uncertainty to ASML’s market environment [GPT].