tsmc's $30000 2nm wafers: a bold move or a risky bet?

2025-08-19 tsmc

taipei, Tuesday, 19 August 2025.
As competition heats up in the semiconductor industry, tsmc is reportedly holding firm on a $30000 price tag for its 2nm wafers. This comes despite samsung’s aggressive strategy of offering lower prices and faster supply. The firm’s pricing reflects confidence in its technology. Meanwhile, tsmc is dealing with a recent leak of confidential 2nm process information. Three engineers are suspected of illegally obtaining trade secrets. This leak intensifies the competition among global semiconductor manufacturers. Will tsmc’s high-price strategy pay off, or will samsung steal market share?

manufacturing capacity and expansion

TSMC plans to begin trial production of 2nm wafers within the next three to four months [3]. The initial monthly capacity is projected to be between 30000 and 35000 wafers [3]. By 2026, TSMC aims to expand its 2nm production capacity to 60000 wafers per month through the construction of four new plants [3]. This expansion demonstrates TSMC’s commitment to meeting the anticipated demand for advanced node technologies. TSMC’s 3nm technology is currently in mass production, with 2nm technology development ongoing [2]. These advancements are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge [GPT].

geopolitical factors and government support

TSMC has received substantial government subsidies in the first half of 2025, totaling NT$671.28 billion (approximately RMB 160.3 billion) from the US, Germany, Japan, and China [3]. Over the past one and a half years, the cumulative government subsidies received by TSMC amount to NT$1,422.92 billion (approximately RMB 339.7 billion) [3]. These subsidies reflect the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing and the global race to secure advanced chip production capabilities [GPT]. These investments could offset capital expenditure and R&D costs. Former Representative to Japan, Hsieh Chang-ting, commented on the crude nature of the TSMC leak, involving Japan’s semiconductor national team [1].

market leadership and competitive dynamics

Bernstein maintained an outperform rating on TSMC stock on August 18, 2025, setting a price target of $170 [2]. The firm’s analyst stated that TSMC’s strategic position in the AI chip market justifies this rating [2]. TSMC’s stock performance is closely monitored because of its significant role in AI chip manufacturing [2]. Samsung is actively trying to secure new clients by offering lower prices and faster response times after winning a significant order from Tesla [1][7]. Industry analysts anticipate intense competition between TSMC and Samsung in the 2nm market [1].

pricing strategy and cost considerations

TSMC is reportedly pricing its 2nm wafers at approximately $30000 per wafer without discounts [1]. In comparison, Ben Bajarin, CEO and chief analyst at Strategies, estimates that TSMC’s 3nm wafer pricing for Apple has risen to $18000 per wafer [1]. TSMC’s 3nm wafer pricing has tripled over the last decade [1]. Samsung’s 2nm process yield is approximately 40% [1]. This impacts their pricing strategy [alert! ‘yield impacts cost and profitability, but the exact correlation isn’t specified in the source’]. Nvidia is projected to increase the price of its H20 chips by 18% [3].

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tsmc pricing 2nm wafers