asml prospers amid warnings: can growth defy global turmoil?

2025-07-22 asml

veldhoven, Tuesday, 22 July 2025.
asml holding n.v. announced strong q2 earnings, exceeding expectations. the company’s success is tempered by a warning. macroeconomic and geopolitical factors might hinder growth in 2026. investors should be aware that global uncertainties may impact future stock performance. despite asml’s robust financial results, these potential risks should be carefully considered. will asml maintain its upward trajectory, or will external pressures take their toll?

stock performance and key metrics

ASML Holding NV (ASML) experienced a recent dip in its stock price [1]. On July 21, 2025, the stock closed at $719.68, a decrease of $14.90 or 2.03% [1]. Despite this, the company’s market capitalization remains substantial at $283.432 billion, with 393.83 million shares outstanding [1]. The stock’s 52-week range is between $578.51 and $945.05, reflecting considerable volatility [1]. ASML’s key profitability ratios include an EPS (TTM) of $29.31, a P/E (TTM) ratio of 24.55, and a forward P/E (NTM) ratio of 26.57 [1].

strong financials, clouded outlook

ASML’s Q2 earnings showcased strong performance [5]. Revenue reached €7.7 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, hitting the high end of guidance [5]. The gross margin stood at 53.7%, benefiting from profitable EUV tool sales and effective cost controls [5]. Net profit was €2.3 billion, with earnings per share at €5.90, exceeding expectations by 13% [5]. New orders totaled €5.5 billion, surpassing market expectations of €4.44 billion [5]. Despite these figures, the stock price fell, wiping out $30 billion in market value [5].

order dynamics and future uncertainty

ASML’s current revenue reflects orders from 12 to 18 months prior, due to long production and delivery cycles [5]. While 2025 revenue appears promising with a €39 billion order backlog, the outlook for 2026 is less clear [5]. Clients are showing caution when placing long-term orders [5]. Key customers like TSMC are performing well, but others such as Samsung and Intel are reducing capital expenditures [5]. Samsung is halving its capital expenditure due to lower fab utilization, and Intel is cutting spending amid foundry losses [5].

geopolitical risks and market reaction

Potential U.S. tariffs on EU imports, possibly adding €75 million to €90 million to the cost per EUV machine, create further uncertainty [5]. This could stall investments from U.S. clients like Intel and Meyrick [5]. The market’s negative reaction is attributed to increasing doubts about ASML’s long-term growth prospects, despite strong recent performance [5]. ASML’s position in the supply chain means Nvidia’s stock reflects short-term optimism, TSMC’s revenue reflects past chip orders, and ASML’s orders hinge on future factory construction, where clients are now hesitant [5].

Bronnen

geopolitical risk asml earnings