gpu market sees slight growth; nvidia's dominance challenged

2025-03-07 nvidia

San Francisco, Friday, 7 March 2025.
despite a modest 6.2% increase in global pc gpu shipments in q4 2024, reaching 78 million units, nvidia faced a notable setback. the report by jon peddie research reveals nvidia’s market share declined by 1.8%, while amd and intel both saw gains. this shift underscores the impact of market dynamics. this includes potential tariffs and nvidia’s struggle to meet demand. the report suggests a challenging road ahead, forecasting a compound annual growth rate of -1% for gpus through 2028.

market overview

The global PC GPU market experienced a slight increase in Q4 2024, with shipments reaching 78 million units, a 6.2% quarter-over-quarter growth and 0.8% year-over-year increase [1][4]. PC CPU shipments also rose to 72 million units [1]. Despite this overall growth, the market faces a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1% from 2024 to 2028, with the installed base expected to reach 3.008 billion units by the end of the forecast period [2]. Independent GPUs (dGPU) are expected to achieve a 15% penetration rate in PCs over the next five years [2].

While the overall GPU market saw growth, NVIDIA’s market share experienced a decline [1]. Specifically, NVIDIA’s GPU market share decreased by 1.8% in Q4 2024 [1][4][7]. In contrast, AMD saw a 1% increase in its GPU market share, and Intel’s market share increased by 0.8% [1][4]. This shift in market share could signal increasing competition and challenges for NVIDIA in maintaining its dominance [4][7].

factors affecting nvidia’s performance

Several factors contributed to NVIDIA’s market share decline. Jon Peddie Research (JPR) President Dr. Jon Peddie noted that global political instability and potential tariffs are disrupting the market [1][2][4]. These factors are causing consumers to either rush purchases to avoid price increases or halt buying altogether [1][4]. NVIDIA’s inability to meet demand, despite holding the largest market share, is also hindering overall GPU market growth [1][5][8]. These supply constraints and market uncertainties are impacting NVIDIA’s performance [4].

impact on nvidia’s stock

NVIDIA’s stock (NVDA:NASDAQ) may face pressure due to the declining market share and supply chain issues [GPT]. The company’s revenue potential could be limited by its inability to meet demand, especially if tariffs and global uncertainties persist [1][4]. While AI PCs are generating excitement, they may not be enough to incentivize consumer spending in the face of economic concerns [1][2]. The projected negative CAGR for the GPU market through 2028 further adds to the challenges for NVIDIA’s stock performance [1][2].

competitive landscape

AMD and Intel are capitalizing on NVIDIA’s challenges [1][4]. AMD’s CPU shipments increased by 14%, while Intel’s CPU shipments grew by 6% [1][4]. Overall PC CPU market also experienced a year-over-year growth of 4.6% [1][4]. The increasing market share of AMD and Intel in the GPU market indicates a shifting competitive landscape, potentially impacting NVIDIA’s long-term market position and competitive advantage [1][4].

Bronnen

GPU shipments PC market