tsmc teeters: key level to watch to avert bear market
Taipei, Monday, 31 March 2025.
the taiwan stock market is on edge. tsmc, a bellwether stock, is at a critical juncture. an analyst warns that failure to hold its annual line could signal a bear market. this highlights tsmc’s vulnerability to market anxieties and u.s. tariff policies under president trump. tsmc’s recent performance shows a decline of 0.63%, settling at 952 yuan. analysts suggest that a drop below 840 yuan could confirm a shift towards a bearish trend.
Trump’s tariff impact
The taiwan stock market is reacting to president trump’s tariff policies [1]. these policies are creating market uncertainty [1]. concerns over potential tariffs on automobiles and other goods are weighing on investor sentiment [5]. economists are also lowering growth forecasts [5]. the anticipation of these tariffs is causing companies to stockpile goods, leading to a surge in imports [5]. the negative effects of these policies are beginning to show, weakening consumer confidence and spending [5].
Analyst’s perspective on tsmc
Lee yung-nian, an analyst at qifa securities investment consulting, suggests 915 yuan as a critical support level [3]. holding above this level would indicate a strong consolidation within a bullish trend [3]. however, a drop to 840 yuan, representing a 50% retracement, would signal a weakening but still bullish market [3]. lee yung-nian believes that as long as tsmc’s stock price remains above 840 yuan, it remains in a bullish trend [3]. he does not believe that collaborations with u.s. chipmakers will negatively impact tsmc’s stock [3].
Broader market concerns
The u.s. stock market experienced a downturn on march 28, driven by rising inflation and tariff escalations [1]. the dow jones industrial average fell by 715 points, the s&p 500 decreased by 1.97%, and the nasdaq plummeted by 2.7% [1]. taiwan stock index futures also saw a significant overnight decline of 458 points [1]. tsmc futures also fell by 27 yuan after hours [1]. this suggests expectations of a considerable decline when the taiwan stock market opens on march 31 [1].
Company developments
Yang chiu-chin assumed the role of ceo at hon hai on march 31, continuing the rotating ceo system initiated in april 2024 [5]. the ai server market’s expansion is expected to benefit taiwanese pcb manufacturers [1]. companies like zhen ding-ky, xinxing, jinxiang electric, bozhi, and jianding are set to gain from this growth [1]. zhen ding aims for 70% of its revenue to come from ai-related applications this year, while xinxing’s ai application ratio has reached 30% [5].