tsmc earnings preview: a deep dive into q1 expectations

2025-04-15 tsmc

Hsinchu, Tuesday, 15 April 2025.
taiwan semiconductor manufacturing is poised to unveil its q1 earnings. analysts predict earnings per share of $2.05 on $25.29 billion revenue. the report is expect to provide insights on supply chain issues and geopolitical tensions. investors are watching closely, as tsmc’s stock valuation could swing almost 7% based on the report according to options traders. analysts are forecasting a 52% year-over-year earnings increase. but jpmorgan lowered the price target, citing concerns about tariffs and a slowing global economy.

key financial expectations

Analysts anticipate that TSMC’s earnings per share will reach $2.05, marking a 52% year-over-year increase [1]. Revenue is projected to hit $25.29 billion, a 34% increase from the previous year [1]. The company’s actual revenue for Q1 2025 was reported at $18.87 billion [7]. TSMC anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be in the range of $19.3 billion to $20.1 billion [7]. These figures reflect TSMC’s robust position in the semiconductor market, driven by demand for its advanced technologies [7].

geopolitical and trade risk factors

Despite strong financial expectations, TSMC faces headwinds from geopolitical tensions and potential trade risks [3][5]. Trump has warned TSMC that it could face tariffs up to 100% if it does not manufacture in the United States [3][5]. While TSMC is investing heavily in overseas fabs, particularly in the U.S., analysts believe that these investments could compress gross margins by 2% to 3% over the next five years [3]. These risks have prompted some analysts to lower their price targets for TSMC [1][2].

analyst perspectives on tsmc’s valuation

JPMorgan Chase lowered its price target for TSMC from TWD 1,500 to TWD 1,300, while maintaining an Overweight rating [1][2]. Citi analyst Laura Chen also reduced the price target from TWD 1,400 to TWD 1,050, but maintained a Buy rating [1]. Despite these adjustments, the average TSMC price target is $240.83, suggesting a 54.54% upside potential [1]. JPMorgan anticipates a 5% to 8% sequential growth in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for N4/N5 and N3 processes [2].

manufacturing capacity and technological advancements

TSMC’s technological advancements, particularly in its 3nm and 2nm nodes, are critical to its market leadership [4][7]. The 3nm node accounted for approximately 18% of TSMC’s revenue in 2024 [4]. The company plans to begin production of its 2nm (N2) node in the second half of 2025, which is expected to provide significant performance and power advantages [4][7]. TSMC’s CEO, C.C. Wei, noted strong demand for the company’s advanced technologies [7].

ai and hpc demand

High-Performance Computing (HPC) clients, including NVIDIA and AMD, accounted for over half of TSMC’s revenue in 2024, marking it as the fastest-growing platform [4]. TSMC’s CEO forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40% for AI accelerators over the next five years [4][7]. This growth is expected to be the primary driver for TSMC’s HPC platform and contribute significantly to overall revenue increases [7]. TSMC anticipates long-term revenue growth of nearly 20% CAGR in USD from 2024, driven by smartphones, HPC, IoT, and automotive sectors [4].

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TSMC Earnings Q1 Report