us chip restrictions spur china to lead global chip research

2025-04-23 general

Beijing, Wednesday, 23 April 2025.
a new report indicates that china is dominating global chip research. this comes as the us tightens export restrictions. nine of the top ten institutions for chip research are now chinese. this surge in research could lead to greater self-sufficiency. us sanctions may be accelerating china’s rise in semiconductor technology. one key finding is that china publishes more chip research than the next three countries combined. half of the most cited chip papers come from chinese researchers.

research dominance

A recent report by Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) indicates that nine of the top ten institutions producing chip research are in China [1][3][4]. Eight Chinese institutions also rank in the top ten for highly cited papers [1][3][4]. This research surge aims to overcome us export restrictions [1][3][4]. The report highlights China’s commitment to semiconductor self-reliance [1]. This focus may impact the market share and stock values of nvidia, asml, and tsmc in the long term [GPT].

publication volume

China’s publication volume in chip research exceeds the sum of the next three countries [1][3][4]. Chinese researchers are responsible for half of the world’s most highly cited chip-related papers [1][3][4]. This data suggests a significant shift in the landscape of semiconductor research [1]. The us restrictions appear to be motivating increased domestic efforts [3]. The leading institutions include the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University [1][3].

expert analysis

Zachary Arnold, a lead analyst at CSET, notes that the study focuses on emerging chip technologies and public publications [1][3]. He points out China’s leading position in the number of published papers [1][3]. Jack Gold, an analyst at Jay Gold Associates, suggests us policies are inadvertently boosting China’s chip industry [7]. Gold believes that once competitive, Chinese firms will sell globally, making it hard for us firms to recover lost market share [7].

market implications for nvidia

Nvidia anticipates a 5.500 billion loss in first-quarter earnings due to restrictions on H20 products [6][7]. Chinese companies, including Alibaba and Tencent, had placed orders for $16 billion worth of H20 chips from nvidia [6]. The us government is considering further export limitations [6]. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, considers nvidia a key player in the us-china tech rivalry [7]. Nvidia’s ceo, huang renxun, claims the company can comply with us requirements without sacrificing technological advancement [7].

huawei’s potential gains

Huawei plans to ship its Ascend 910C AI processing chips to Chinese customers starting in May [6]. The Ascend 910C integrates two 910B processors, rivaling nvidia’s H100 chips in performance [6]. Brady Wang from Counterpoint Research notes several domestic Chinese companies are competing with nvidia [6]. Phelix Lee from Morningstar acknowledges Huawei’s competitiveness but notes challenges in securing foundry supplies [6]. Huawei could benefit from the restrictions on nvidia [6].

broader economic effects

AMD expects losses up to $800 million due to new export rules [7]. Rob Enderle, an independent tech analyst, predicts Chinese chipmakers, potentially led by Huawei, will intensify efforts to seize market share [7]. Enderle warns that the us is handing over leadership in microprocessors and gpus [7]. Restrictions may incentivize allies to buy chips from China, creating competitiveness issues for us companies [7]. The situation is rapidly evolving, significantly impacting the Chinese market [6].

Bronnen

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