ukraine strikes deep into siberia, raising stakes ahead of turkey talks
warsaw, Monday, 2 June 2025.
as russia and ukraine prepare for talks in turkey, the conflict intensifies. ukraine launched drone attacks on military bases in siberia, potentially damaging over 40 aircraft. this marks the first siberian attack. simultaneously, russia escalates its offensive on sumy oblast. kyiv claims that over 40 aircraft, including strategic bombers, may have been damaged in the siberian strike. the attacks highlight the slim chance of a ceasefire.
Siberian strikes and strategic implications
Ukraine’s security service (SBU) claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on military bases in the Irkutsk region and other areas of Russia [2]. The attacks mark the first time siberian military bases have been targeted [1][2]. According to Ukrainian media reports, the attacks may have damaged over 40 aircraft, including long-range strategic bombers [2]. A kyiv intelligence official stated that 41 russian combat aircraft were hit, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers [5]. This operation, codenamed ‘net,’ may have inflicted damages exceeding $2 billion [6]. These bombers are capable of carrying out long range nuclear strikes [6].
russian response and escalating tensions
Russia’s defense ministry acknowledged the drone attacks on military airfields in five regions, including Irkutsk and Murmansk [4]. They reported that the attacks were repelled in most regions, but caused several aircraft to catch fire in Murmansk and Irkutsk [5]. The ministry stated that the fires were extinguished, with no casualties reported, and that some individuals involved in the attacks have been detained [4][5]. Russia also launched a large-scale drone attack against Ukraine, deploying 472 drones and 7 missiles, the highest number of drones used in a single night during the conflict [5][6]. Ukraine claimed to have intercepted 382 drones and 3 missiles [6].
impact on peace talks and investor sentiment
These escalating attacks occur ahead of direct peace talks scheduled for Monday in Istanbul [1][5]. The intensified conflict suggests limited prospects for a ceasefire agreement [1]. Investors should monitor aerospace and defense companies closely [GPT]. Increased demand for military equipment may positively impact stock values for these firms [GPT]. Simultaneously, heightened geopolitical risks could increase volatility in broader market indices [GPT]. Investors should also watch for potential disruptions to supply chains and commodity markets, especially those involving energy and metals [GPT].
broader geopolitical ramifications
The attacks also coincide with increased russian offensives in the sumy oblast region [1][3]. Furthermore, a bridge collapse in russia’s bryansk region, near the ukrainian border, resulted in at least 7 fatalities and 69 injuries, affecting a passenger train en route to moscow with 388 passengers [5]. These events, coupled with ukraine’s interior minister submitting his resignation following a deadly airstrike on a military training facility, underscore the increasing instability and human cost of the conflict [7]. Investors should consider these factors when assessing risk exposure in the region [GPT].