ASML prepares to release Q4 earnings amid global semiconductor challenges
Veldhoven, Tuesday, 28 January 2025.
ASML is set to unveil its Q4 earnings on January 29, 2025, against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating semiconductor market conditions. Analysts forecast earnings of $7.67 per share, with expected revenue reaching approximately $9.84 billion. Recent market reactions saw ASML shares fall by 5.7%, closing at $690.15 on January 26, 2025, with trading volumes significantly higher than average. Despite current market volatility, BNP Paribas and Wells Fargo have expressed confidence in ASML’s potential, maintaining strong buy ratings and high price targets. As the leading provider of advanced semiconductor equipment, ASML’s upcoming earnings report will be closely examined for insights into its future performance and strategic responses to industry dynamics.
Market expectations and analyst projections
Wall Street analysts anticipate ASML to report earnings per share of $7.67 and quarterly revenue of $9.84 billion [1]. Recent market activity shows heightened investor interest, with trading volume reaching 4.93 million shares, substantially above the average of 1.80 million [1]. The company’s stock experienced a 5.7% decline to $690.15 on January 26, 2025 [1], reflecting broader market uncertainties about technology valuations [3].
Strong analyst backing despite market volatility
Major financial institutions maintain positive outlooks for ASML. Wells Fargo recently increased its price target from $790 to $860, while BNP Paribas set a target of $858, both with favorable ratings [1]. The consensus among analysts remains ‘Moderate Buy’ with an average price target of $946.60 [1]. This confidence stems from ASML’s dominant 82.9% market share in photolithography equipment and complete monopoly in the advanced EUV sector [4].
Q4 performance indicators and future outlook
JP Morgan projects ASML’s Q4 2024 gross margin at 49.5% with pre-tax profits of €3.054 billion [3]. The company’s order book, while showing some fluctuation, remains robust with Morgan Stanley anticipating Q4 orders of approximately €3 billion [3]. For 2025, ASML has adjusted its revenue forecast to €30-35 billion with an expected gross profit margin of 51-53% [2].
Strategic position in semiconductor industry
ASML’s unique position as the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography equipment [4] continues to be a crucial advantage in the semiconductor industry. The company’s substantial R&D investment, maintaining around 15% of revenue [4], reinforces its technological leadership. Despite current market pressures, ASML’s fundamental role in semiconductor manufacturing positions it strategically for long-term industry growth [3].