chip shortage looms: will nvidia, asml, and tsmc feel the squeeze in 2025?

2025-06-16 general

Shanghai, Monday, 16 June 2025.
the electronics component market is bracing for a potential semiconductor shortage in 2025. procurementpro.com urges investors to monitor supply chain dynamics closely. sina.com’s csi semiconductor chip index points to activity in china that could impact global supply. this could affect production costs and lead times for giants like nvidia, asml and tsmc. the question is, will these industry leaders face production bottlenecks and see their stock performance affected?

Analyzing nvidia’s ai dominance

Nvidia’s performance highlights the increasing importance of AI semiconductors [7]. The company’s net profit reached $18.7 billion, accounting for approximately 40% of the total profits of the top ten global semiconductor companies [7]. This is a substantial increase from the 4% share in 2022, demonstrating AI’s significant impact on industry growth [7]. Nvidia’s new AI semiconductor, Blackwell, has begun mass production and is expected to further boost revenue [7]. Investors should closely monitor Nvidia’s ability to maintain its leading position in the rapidly evolving AI landscape [alert! ‘Market conditions can change quickly’].

tsmc’s advanced technology and market position

TSMC, a key player in semiconductor manufacturing, is also experiencing positive momentum [7]. The company’s profits have reached a three-year high, driven by strong sales of high-performance computing products, which now account for 59% of its sales, up 13 percentage points year-over-year [7]. TSMC’s 2nm process is scheduled for mass production in the second half of 2025, utilizing gate-all-around (GAA) nanosheet transistor technology [6]. This advancement is expected to deliver a 10-15% speed increase or a 25-30% power reduction compared to its 3nm process [6]. Investors should watch how TSMC’s technological advancements translate into sustained market leadership.

challenges and opportunities for semiconductor companies

While Nvidia and TSMC are thriving, not all semiconductor companies are seeing the same success [7]. Intel continues to face challenges, with struggling CPU sales and losses in its foundry business [7]. The automotive semiconductor market is also facing headwinds due to slowing electric vehicle demand and increased production by Chinese companies [7]. For example, STMicroelectronics saw its net profit decline by 89% to $56 million, a nine-year low [7]. Investors should consider these varied performances when assessing the overall health and future prospects of the semiconductor industry [alert! ‘Specific companies may underperform’].

geopolitical factors and market strategies

Geopolitical factors are also influencing the semiconductor market. France is aiming to develop its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, with President Macron emphasizing the need to master 2 to 10nm advanced processes [6]. To achieve this, France may need to attract major players like TSMC or Samsung to establish local fabs [6]. Meanwhile, Infineon is increasing its investment in China, focusing on localizing production and innovation [5]. This strategy aims to cater to the specific needs of the Chinese market and mitigate potential risks from international trade tensions [5]. Investors should monitor how these geopolitical strategies impact the global semiconductor supply chain.

potential impacts of tariffs and trade uncertainties

Trade uncertainties and tariffs could further disrupt the semiconductor market [5]. Infineon has already lowered its full-year revenue expectations, citing market uncertainties caused by tariff policies [5]. These policies can affect chip demand and supply chains as automotive manufacturers assess the impact on their production strategies [5]. While the exact impact is still uncertain, potential disruptions could lead to inventory adjustments and affect overall market demand [5]. Investors should closely follow trade policy developments and their potential consequences for semiconductor companies.

Bronnen

semiconductor shortage component market