asml: can bearish sentiment fuel a surprise earnings rally?
Amsterdam, Wednesday, 9 July 2025.
asml, a key european equity, is set to release its q2 earnings amid widespread bearish sentiment. despite a 30% drop in market value over the past year, some wall street analysts anticipate a potential rebound. citi notes investor negativity is at a near decade high, suggesting pessimism may be overdone. jpmorgan adds that simply meeting the order intake consensus of €4.8 billion could trigger a positive stock reaction. will asml defy expectations and deliver a surprise boost?
analyst perspectives and market dynamics
Analysts’ estimates point to a potential increase in ASML’s earnings per share (EPS) for the most recent quarter [3]. The average estimate from 23 analysts is €6.72 per share, compared to €5.21 in the same quarter of the previous year [3]. Revenue estimates from 24 analysts average €9.06 billion, a 25.138 or 25.20% increase from the €7.24 billion reported in the prior year’s quarter [3]. These figures highlight expectations of substantial growth, potentially setting the stage for a positive surprise if ASML exceeds these targets [3].
financial performance and future outlook
For the full fiscal year, 36 analysts estimate an average EPS of €19.06 [3]. This is slightly lower than the €19.91 EPS reported in the previous fiscal year [3]. Revenue estimates from 37 analysts average €28.06 billion, compared to €27.56 billion in the prior period [3]. ASML’s revenue has steadily increased over the years, from €10.944 billion in 2018 to a projected €28.263 billion in 2024 [2][4]. Profit before tax has also risen from €2.943 billion in 2018 to a projected €9.042 billion in 2024 [2][4].
strategic shifts and stock performance
Despite positive developments in the automotive, industrial, and AI sectors driving the chip market, some experts are cautious about ASML [7]. Short-term uncertainties and potential declines through 2026 are noted concerns [7]. Recent analysis shows mixed recommendations, with Jefferies downgrading ASML from “Buy” to “Hold,” while raising the price target from €660 to €690 [8]. Barclays reduced its price target from €770 to €650 [8]. On Tuesday, ASML’s stock closed at €678.90 in Amsterdam [8].