nvidia's bumpy ride: tariff delays and ai chip competition

2025-03-26 nvidia

Santa Clara, Wednesday, 26 March 2025.
nvidia’s stock is experiencing turbulence. Investors are reacting to potential tariff delays and apple’s evolving ai strategy. a key development is the projected rise of custom ai chips, forecasted by morgan stanley to potentially capture 15% of the ai chip market by 2030. this intensifies competition for nvidia. apple is moving forward with a $1 billion order for nvidia’s gb300 nvl72 ai systems, signaling a major investment in generative ai, but uncertainty remains.

tariff uncertainties and market reaction

Nvidia’s stock performance is closely tied to the potential imposition of tariffs on semiconductor imports [1]. Former President Trump indicated that tariffs on chips are still under consideration, despite investments from companies like TSMC in U.S. chip manufacturing [4]. The anticipation of these tariffs has created volatility in the market, though reports suggest a possible scaling back of tariffs on key trading partners [6]. On March 24, Nvidia’s stock saw a 3.7% increase following news of a potentially more lenient tariff approach [6]. However, the long-term impact of these trade policies remains a concern for investors [7].

apple’s ai ambitions and nvidia’s role

Apple’s entry into the AI data center race has significant implications for Nvidia [3]. Apple is reportedly placing orders for approximately $1 billion in Nvidia GB300 NVL72 AI systems, which translates to roughly 250 servers [3]. This move indicates Apple’s commitment to developing generative AI applications [3]. Ananda Baruah, an analyst at Loop Capital, noted that Apple is officially entering the large server cluster Gen AI game, with Dell and Super Micro Computer as key server partners [3]. Despite this positive development, Nvidia’s stock dipped 0.6% on March 24, closing at $120.69 [3].

competitive landscape and market dynamics

The competitive landscape is evolving, with Morgan Stanley analysts projecting that custom AI chips could capture a significant portion of the market by 2030 [GPT]. This projection adds pressure on Nvidia to maintain its market dominance [GPT]. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized the growing demand for AI and the increasing computing power required for even lower-cost models [6]. Despite these challenges, Nvidia’s agile network of suppliers, located in various countries, provides some resilience against potential supply chain disruptions [7]. Huang has also expressed enthusiasm about building in America, collaborating with TSMC and other partners to bring manufacturing onshore [7].

technical analysis and investor sentiment

Nvidia’s stock has exhibited mixed technical signals [6]. While it trades above its 8-day ($118.49) and 20-day ($117.65) simple moving averages, it remains below its 50-day ($126.57) and 200-day ($127.79) SMAs [6]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is at a negative 2.54, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51 [6]. These indicators suggest that the stock’s next move will depend on whether tariff relief and AI innovation can outweigh technical weaknesses [6]. Investors are hoping for a turnaround, but uncertainty surrounding trade policies and increasing competition continue to influence market sentiment [1][6].

Bronnen

Tariff Risk AI Chip Market