asml dismisses tariff concerns for 2025 outlook
Veldhoven, Wednesday, 4 December 2024.
ASML Holding, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker, has projected that tariffs introduced during the Trump administration will not significantly affect its financial performance in 2025. This announcement, which underscores strong global demand for its chip-making machines, led to a 3.6% rise in ASML’s share price. Despite new U.S. export restrictions aimed at China, ASML has maintained its revenue forecast, expecting net sales between 30 to 35 billion euros next year, with a fifth of this from China. The company sees no immediate impact from these curbs on its business. ASML’s confidence extends to its long-term outlook, anticipating revenues of up to 60 billion euros by 2030. Investors responded positively, making ASML the top gainer on the Dutch AEX market. This resilience highlights ASML’s pivotal role in the semiconductor industry amid geopolitical tensions.
Strategic positioning amid export controls
The latest U.S. restrictions, targeting 140 Chinese companies[1], demonstrate the complex landscape ASML navigates. While Washington aims to safeguard advanced technology from military applications, ASML’s unique market position allows it to maintain its outlook. The Dutch firm’s high-end DUV chip-making machines, essential for semiconductor production, remain in strong demand despite geopolitical pressures[2].
China market dynamics
ASML’s projected Chinese sales represent a significant shift from previous periods. The company’s Chinese revenue contribution has decreased from nearly 50% in early 2023 to an expected 20% for 2025[3]. This adjustment reflects ASML’s adaptability to changing market conditions while maintaining its overall growth trajectory.
Long-term growth prospects
CEO Christophe Fouquet’s bullish stance on 2030 prospects reflects ASML’s technological leadership. The company projects substantial growth with anticipated revenue between 44 and 60 billion euros by 2030[4]. This forecast, coupled with expected gross margin improvements from 51% to between 56% and 60%, signals ASML’s confidence in its market position[5].