nvidia's earnings: will it fuel or foil market rally?
New York, Monday, 26 May 2025.
investors are on edge awaiting nvidia’s earnings report next week. analysts predict its ai sector performance could either boost market confidence or trigger volatility. nvidia’s report is a crucial bellwether for tech hardware, including dell and hp. the street expects nvidia’s revenue to increase 66% year over year to $43.3 billion. the chipmaker’s stock has seen dramatic swings, down 5% ytd amid shifting trade policies. will nvidia deliver, or will market anxiety deepen?
analyst expectations and market sentiment
Nvidia is set to release its fiscal year 2026 first-quarter report on May 28 [5]. Analysts anticipate a 66% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $43.3 billion [5]. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to rise by 44% to $0.88 [5]. These growth rates represent a slowdown compared to the previous year, when Nvidia’s revenue surged by 262% and adjusted EPS increased by 461% [5]. Investors will focus on Nvidia’s data center revenue, capital expenditure plans, and the impact of trade policies and competition [5].
factors influencing nvidia’s performance
Several factors are expected to influence Nvidia’s performance. These include DeepSeek’s competitive pressure and evolving U.S. trade policies [5]. The primary concern revolves around Nvidia’s data center business, which accounts for approximately 90% of its revenue [5]. While analysts remain optimistic about this sector, they foresee a further deceleration in growth [5]. Market expectations for Nvidia’s data center revenue this quarter range from $38 billion to $40 billion, indicating a 77% year-over-year increase and a 2.36% sequential increase [5].
expert opinions and stock performance
Analysts’ ratings for Nvidia vary. Loop Capital maintains a buy rating with a $175 price target [7]. KeyBanc also has a buy rating, setting a price target of $190 [7]. Cantor Fitzgerald gives a $200 target, while Susquehanna has a $180 target [7]. Oppenheimer anticipates Nvidia will exceed expectations, setting a $175 target price [7]. Despite these positive outlooks, Nvidia’s stock has experienced volatility, with a year-to-date decrease of 5% [5].
broader market context
The broader market context adds complexity. Last week, U.S. stocks declined due to President Trump’s tariff threats on European goods [1]. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.61%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.00% [1]. Moreover, U.S. Treasury auctions have underperformed, contributing to market instability [4]. These factors, coupled with concerns over U.S. government debt, have amplified market anxieties [5].
potential market impact
Nvidia’s earnings report coincides with other significant economic events [5]. The Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes and the April PCE inflation data are due to be released [5]. These events will likely influence market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy [5]. Given Nvidia’s prominent role in the AI sector, its earnings outcome will be closely watched for signals about the overall health and future prospects of technology and growth stocks [1][5].