tsmc's earnings in sight: will chip giant maintain dominance?

2025-07-09 tsmc

taipei, Wednesday, 9 July 2025.
tsmc, the world’s largest chip foundry, has scheduled its earnings release for july 17. the announcement arrives as tsmc enjoys a dominant position. tsmc has a mid-60s market share. Investors are keen to hear tsmc’s insights on chip demand. They also want to know about manufacturing capacity. Geopolitical factors are a concern. The company’s performance impacts major players like nvidia. MarketBeat suggests tsmc could gain from manufacturing issues in China. Analysts expect 87 tsmc articles this week, above the average of 73.

Stock performance and market sentiment

TSMC’s stock (NYSE:TSM) closed at $231.85 on July 9, a 1.751 increase of 1.75% [1]. Extended trading saw a further rise to $232.12 [1]. News sentiment surrounding TSMC is positive. The TSM News Sentiment index is 1.13, exceeding the average of 0.65 for computer and technology news [1]. Taiwan’s stock market closed up 164.74 points at 22527.01, bolstered by TSMC’s performance at the end of the trading day [4][6]. Foreign investors showed confidence, with net purchases of 75.2 billion [6].

Tariff uncertainties and financial impact

The U.S. government has yet to announce tariff rates for Taiwan, creating uncertainty [3][4]. The delay could extend negotiations until August 1 [3][6]. Analysts suggest a 15-25% tariff might be acceptable [3]. Concerns exist regarding the rapid appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar and its impact on TSMC’s financials [3]. There is also speculation about whether early shipments, driven by tariff concerns in the second quarter, will lead to a weaker-than-expected peak season in the third quarter [3].

us expansion: benefits and risks

TSMC’s significant investment in Arizona includes plans for two advanced wafer fabs producing 4nm and 3nm chips, with a third plant for 2nm technology, totaling over $65 billion [5]. These overseas plants offer several benefits. They can receive U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies and tax credits [5]. The plants can also stabilize cooperation with major U.S. clients and strengthen global risk diversification [5]. However, risks include discrepancies in labor costs and operational efficiency, U.S. dollar appreciation, exchange rate pressures, and high geopolitical sensitivity [5].

expert opinions and market outlook

Analysts believe that Taiwan’s stock market may consolidate around 22,000, fluctuating by approximately 200 points, due to tariff and financial reporting uncertainties [3]. Some analysts predict that if tariffs exceed 15-25%, there could be negative impacts [3]. Despite tariff concerns, Taiwan’s June exports reached $53.32 billion, a 0.337 increase of 33.71% year-on-year [8]. Electronic components hit a record high of $19.11 billion, and exports to the U.S. reached $17.27 billion, up 0.909 or 90.89% year-on-year [8].

Bronnen

semiconductor market tsmc earnings