asml's earnings: will tariffs and ai slowdown impact chip giant?

2025-04-16 asml

Veldhoven, Wednesday, 16 April 2025.
asml, a critical player in the semiconductor industry, is set to release its q1 earnings today, april 16, 2025. analysts are eager to see how geopolitical tensions, specifically tariffs, are affecting the company. a potential slowdown in ai investments adds another layer of uncertainty. investors will be watching closely to see if asml maintains its financial forecasts. some analysts believe asml might withdraw its financial guidance due to the uncertain trade environment. the investor call is scheduled for 15:00 cet.

stock performance and valuation concerns

The upcoming earnings release occurs during a period of investor anxiety, which has driven valuations of major semiconductor companies to multiyear lows [1]. Concerns over tariffs and potential softening in the ai sector have negatively impacted asml’s stock [7]. Year-to-date, asml’s stock has declined by approximately 12% [7]. This decline reflects the market’s apprehension regarding the sustainability of the ai boom and the escalating trade disputes between the us and china [7].

expert opinions on asml’s prospects

Quilter Cheviot tech analyst Ben Barringer suggests that the current valuations of tsmc and asml already reflect considerable negative sentiment [7]. He also notes that a swift recovery in valuations is unlikely without clearer policy guidance [7]. Allspring Global Investments’ Gary Tan points out that while asml’s valuation reflects global trade tensions, its upcoming reports still face potential downside risks [7]. White Oak Capital investment director Nori Chiou highlights increasing uncertainty in ai demand and the impact of policy volatility on long-term investments [7].

potential challenges and internal factors

Beyond external pressures, asml faces its own set of internal challenges [7]. Uncertainty surrounds the capital expenditure plans of intel, a major asml client [7]. Additionally, samsung electronics is encountering technological hurdles in its advanced manufacturing processes [7]. These factors introduce further ambiguity into asml’s near-term outlook. These internal and external factors contribute to a complex and potentially volatile period for asml’s stock [1][7].

tariff exemptions and long-term risks

The temporary tariff exemptions granted by the us government provided a brief respite for semiconductor stocks, including asml [7]. However, these measures are not permanent [7]. The us government has initiated new investigations into the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors, potentially paving the way for future tariffs [7]. Morningstar analyst Phelix Lee cautions that the imposition of industry tariffs could increase uncertainty in us data center investments [7]. This could negatively affect new data center construction and, consequently, the earnings of tsmc and its supply chain [7].

revised forecasts and ai demand

Originally, tsmc anticipated revenue growth in the mid-20% range for 2025 [7]. However, jp morgan’s latest forecast suggests a possible decrease to the low 20% range [7]. Deutsche bank even anticipates that tsmc might completely withdraw its 2025 financial forecast [7]. For asml, while the 2025 forecast is expected to hold, a jp morgan client survey indicates that investors are preparing for potentially lower-than-expected revenue in 2026 [7].

asml stock overview

As of today, asml’s stock is trading at $683.16, up $10.29, or 1.53% [6]. The company’s total market capitalization stands at $268.676 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.28 [6]. The stock’s 52-week high is $1103.119, while the 52-week low is $578.51 [6]. Investors should monitor asml’s q1 earnings release and the subsequent investor call for further insights into the company’s performance and future outlook [2].

Bronnen

earnings impact tariff effects