asml defies us trade hurdles with impressive start to 2025
Veldhoven, Tuesday, 14 January 2025.
ASML Holding N.V. has kicked off 2025 with remarkable performance, outpacing its US semiconductor counterparts. Despite US trade restrictions, the company remains a top choice due to the surging demand for AI chips. Since the start of the year, ASML shares have surged over 7%, significantly outperforming Nvidia’s modest 1.21% gain and the stagnant iShares Semiconductor ETF. As Wall Street experiences a selloff ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, European markets like Germany’s DAX have shown resilience. Analysts expect ASML’s earnings per share to climb by 26% in 2025, rebounding from a 4% drop in 2024. ASML’s near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography systems strengthens its position in AI chip manufacturing. However, new US export restrictions targeting AI chip exports to China could pose challenges. Despite these hurdles, ASML maintains a positive outlook, anticipating no direct material impact on its business.
Market positioning amid trade tensions
The Dutch semiconductor giant’s robust performance comes against a backdrop of shifting market dynamics. While US markets face uncertainty, with the S&P 500 down 0.93% and Dow Jones falling 1.42% [1], European markets demonstrate strength. ASML’s dominance in the semiconductor industry remains unchallenged, particularly due to its monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography systems essential for AI chip production [1]. This technological edge has helped ASML maintain its market position despite geopolitical pressures.
Revenue outlook and growth projections
Financial analysts project substantial growth for ASML, with revenue forecasts ranging between €44bn and €60bn by 2030 [1]. The company expects a significant earnings rebound, with analysts predicting a 26% increase in earnings per share for 2025, following a 4% decline in 2024 [1]. This positive outlook persists even as the Dutch government partially revoked licenses for certain lithography system shipments to China starting January 2025 [1].
Navigating regulatory challenges
ASML faces evolving regulatory landscapes in both the US and China. The US government’s new ‘Export Control Framework for AI Diffusion’ announced on January 2, 2025 [1], could impact the company’s operations. However, ASML has already adapted its business strategy, reducing its reliance on the Chinese market from nearly 50% to around 20% [1]. The company maintains its confident stance, stating it doesn’t expect any direct material impact on its business operations [1].