chip probe: Trump poised to release findings, new tariffs loom

2025-07-28 general

Washington, Monday, 28 July 2025.
The Trump administration is set to release the results of its investigation into semiconductor imports within two weeks. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated this review is a key factor in the EU’s push for a broader trade agreement. Trump hinted at potential tariffs on semiconductor imports, which could heavily impact companies, like those in Taiwan, planning to invest in U.S. manufacturing. Trump has previously suggested tariffs as high as 25%, potentially even 100%. The results of the probe are expected by August 10, 2025.

Section 232 investigation

The investigation is being conducted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1][2]. This act allows for tariffs based on national security concerns [1][2]. The Trump administration has used this law to investigate other industries, such as copper and lumber [1][2]. Previous investigations led to tariffs on steel, aluminum and the auto industry [1][2]. These tariffs could significantly alter the competitive landscape for semiconductor companies [7]. The administration also initiated a similar probe into pharmaceuticals, highlighting a broader focus on domestic production [1][2].

Potential impact on chipmakers

The potential tariffs could affect major players like TSMC, Intel, Samsung, Micron, Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm and MediaTek [7]. Semiconductor giants and industry associations are urging caution, warning that broad tariffs could severely damage the U.S. semiconductor industry [7]. A U.S. think tank, ITIF, estimates that a 25% tariff on semiconductors could decrease U.S. economic growth by 0.18% in the first year [7]. Over ten years, the cumulative GDP loss could reach $1.4 trillion [7]. This economic disruption could deter investment [alert! ‘Economic models are predictive and may not reflect actual outcomes.’]

Geopolitical implications

The U.S. relies heavily on semiconductor imports from Taiwan [1][2]. Former President Joe Biden sought to reduce this reliance through the CHIPS Act, which provided billions in funding to incentivize domestic production [1][2]. These incentives aim to attract chipmakers to expand their U.S. operations [1][2]. Trump stated that companies would invest in U.S. manufacturing to avoid new tariffs [1][2]. He also suggested that EU Commission President von der Leyen found a ‘better way’ to avoid the chip tariffs [1][2].

EU trade deal and tariffs

Trump and von der Leyen announced a new trade agreement that includes 15% tariffs on EU imports entering the U.S [1][2]. Autos face a higher 25% tariff under a separate action [1][2]. The EU will reportedly increase its investment in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products [7]. The Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade stated that the tariff agreement between the EU and the United States is ‘not ideal’ [6]. These trade dynamics add complexity to investment decisions in the semiconductor sector [alert! ‘Geopolitical factors can shift rapidly, impacting trade agreements.’]

Bronnen

semiconductor tariffs CHIPS Act