Anthropic calls for ai export control refinements amid us-china tech race

2025-05-01 general

Washington, Thursday, 1 May 2025.
Anthropic, an AI safety and research firm, advocates for targeted adjustments to the U.S. AI chip export controls. These changes aim to fortify America’s competitive edge against China. Anthropic suggests lowering the chip purchase threshold for tier 2 countries. They propose encouraging these nations to secure chips via government agreements. This approach seeks to curb smuggling and bolster U.S. oversight. The company stresses that robust enforcement is crucial for the export controls to be effective. CEO Dario Amodei has been a vocal proponent of export restrictions, emphasizing their importance in maintaining U.S. AI leadership.

Current export control framework

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s “Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion,” set to take effect on May 15, divides countries into three tiers with varying restrictions on AI chip exports [1][2]. Tier 1 faces no restrictions, Tier 2 has capped chip purchases, and Tier 3, including China and Russia, faces comprehensive export bans [1]. This framework aims to maintain U.S. dominance in AI by limiting access to advanced chips for certain nations [2]. These restrictions follow previous actions, including the Trump administration’s measures against DeepSeek [2]. The Biden administration introduced this framework in January [2].

Investor concerns and market impact

Nvidia previously criticized the proposed restrictions as “unprecedented and misguided,” suggesting they would hinder global innovation [1]. Some analysts believe that limiting access to U.S. chips could incentivize countries to seek alternatives from China, potentially benefiting Chinese chip manufacturers [7]. Seven Republican senators urged Commerce Secretary Lutnick to revoke the restrictions, fearing they would push Tier 2 countries toward Chinese AI chips [7]. Oracle’s executive vice president, Ken Glueck, criticized the existing tier system as illogical [7]. These concerns highlight the potential for unintended consequences and market shifts due to the export controls.

Potential policy shifts under the trump administration

The Trump administration is reportedly considering overhauling the current tiered system [7]. Sources suggest a shift towards government-to-government agreements to determine export quotas, potentially using chip supply as leverage in trade negotiations [7]. Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross confirmed that scrapping the tier system is under consideration [7]. This approach aligns with Trump’s strategy of negotiating individual trade deals [7]. The administration may also lower the threshold for license-free chip exports, potentially reducing the number of Nvidia H100 chips that can be shipped without a license from 1,700 to 500 [7]. Such changes could significantly impact the global AI chip market and investment strategies.

Nvidia’s perspective and china’s ai advancements

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has cautioned against overly restrictive chip export rules, emphasizing China’s rapid advancements in AI [6]. Huang stated that China is “very, very close” to the U.S. in AI capabilities, driven by significant computing power and software expertise within Chinese firms [6]. He advocated for policies that promote the global spread of U.S. AI technology [6]. Despite export restrictions, Huang recently concluded his second visit to China this year [6]. These developments suggest that while the U.S. aims to maintain its AI lead, China’s progress and Nvidia’s business interests necessitate a balanced approach to export controls.

Bronnen

AI Regulation Chip Exports