tsmc's ai boom: stock target soars on bernstein upgrade

2025-09-05 tsmc

Taipei, Friday, 5 September 2025.
bernstein has significantly increased its price target for tsmc, now projecting a potential share price of NT$1,444, a notable jump from the previous NT$1,260. This bullish outlook is fueled by expectations of strong artificial intelligence demand. A 35% surge in tsmc’s earnings per share is anticipated this year. The upgrade also considers early indications of recovery in markets outside the ai sector. tsmc’s competitive advantages in cost and execution are expected to solidify its leading position in the foundry market.

Stock performance and analyst views

TSMC’s stock in Taipei reached NT$1,175 on September 3, 2025, marking a NT$15 increase or 1.29% rise [4]. The Taiwan Stock Exchange also saw a surge, exceeding 200 points to peak at 24,357 points [4]. On September 4, 2025, TSMC’s American Depositary Receipts (ADR) increased by $3.82, a 1.65% rise [4]. The ADR closed at $235.21 on September 5, 2025, also up by $3.82 or 1.65% [4]. Analyst Wei Mingyu remains optimistic about TSMC’s long-term outlook, citing its leadership in advanced process technology and future trends, maintaining a target price of NT$1,300 to NT$1,400 [4].

Manufacturing capacity and technological advancements

TSMC is expected to begin mass production of its 2-nanometer process in the fourth quarter [4]. The company anticipates mass production of the more advanced A14 process in 2028 [4]. These advancements underscore TSMC’s commitment to maintaining its competitive edge through technological innovation [GPT]. Such developments are crucial for meeting the escalating demands of the AI sector and other technology-driven industries [4]. Bernstein’s upgrade reflects confidence in TSMC’s ability to capitalize on these advancements and sustain its market leadership [1].

Geopolitical factors and nanjing plant

The U.S. decision to terminate the Verified End User (VEU) status for TSMC’s Nanjing plant introduces a layer of complexity [4]. This decision, similar to actions taken against Samsung and SK Hynix, affects the transportation of essential equipment to the Chinese plant, with exemptions expiring in approximately four months [4]. TSMC has acknowledged the notification and is currently assessing the situation to ensure minimal impact on its Nanjing operations [5]. In 2024, the Nanjing plant contributed NT$69 billion in revenue, representing 2.4% of TSMC’s total revenue [5].

Financial impact and market dynamics

If TSMC fails to secure a new permit, the Nanjing plant will need to apply for export permits from the U.S. on a case-by-case basis starting January 1, 2026 [5]. Despite these challenges, a research department maintains a ‘buy’ rating for TSMC, setting a target price of NT$1,320 based on a 2026 estimated net asset value ratio of 5.2 times [5]. Market analysts suggest that TSMC’s stock performance is influenced by VEU adjustments and the continuous demand for AI chips [5]. An analyst at Global Markets Insight noted that VEU rebalancing has created short-term volatility, but TSMC’s long-term prospects remain strong due to the AI boom [5].

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tsmc earnings price target