nvidia weathers china uncertainty, forecasts $54 billion revenue

2025-08-29 nvidia

Santa Clara, Friday, 29 August 2025.
despite geopolitical headwinds and uncertainty surrounding h20 chip sales to china, nvidia projects a robust $54 billion in revenue for the next quarter. ceo jensen huang is in talks with the trump administration regarding chip sales. a previous deal involved nvidia giving 15% of sales to the government to restart sales to china. this highlights the complex interplay of international relations and nvidia’s financial strategies. the company’s ai business continues to drive growth, signaling resilience in a dynamic market.

Financial performance and market reaction

Nvidia’s Q2 earnings showcased a 56% surge in sales, reaching $46.74 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.05 [1]. Data center revenue played a significant role, climbing 56% year-over-year to $41.1 billion [1]. Despite these gains, the company’s stock experienced a slight dip on August 28 following the earnings report [1]. This market reaction reflects investor sensitivity to factors beyond raw financial performance. Thomas Monteiro, a senior analyst at Investing.com, noted that merely meeting revenue expectations wasn’t sufficient after a rally to all-time highs [7][8].

China dynamics and h20 chip prospects

Uncertainty looms over Nvidia’s H20 chip sales in China, influenced by geopolitical factors and regulatory frameworks [1][8]. The Trump administration previously blocked Nvidia from selling its H20 chip in China [1]. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is actively engaging with the administration to navigate these challenges [1]. Huang believes there’s a ‘real possibility’ of selling the advanced Blackwell processor in China [1]. If geopolitical issues subside, Nvidia anticipates shipping between $2 billion and $5 billion in H20 revenue during the third quarter [1, 7].

Strategic outlook and ai infrastructure

Nvidia anticipates significant growth in AI infrastructure spending, projecting $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade [1]. Jensen Huang highlighted the immense opportunity ahead, noting the AI race is in full swing, with capital expenditure spend doubling to $600 billion per year [1]. Jed Ellerbroek, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital, anticipates substantial revenue gains for Nvidia over the next nine months [2][3]. Ellerbroek suggests investors should be prepared for Nvidia to become a double-digit percentage of the S&P 500 [2][3].

Competitive positioning and expert analysis

Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, emphasized Nvidia’s pivotal role in the AI revolution [7]. He stated that Nvidia’s results and commentary demonstrate the AI revolution is entering its next growth phase despite headwinds in China [7]. Paul Meeks, managing director at Freedom Capital Markets, anticipates potential dips in Nvidia’s stock due to trade talks with China, irrespective of the company’s fundamentals [8]. Nvidia’s capacity to navigate geopolitical complexities while capitalizing on the expanding AI market remains central to its market position and stock performance [8].

Bronnen

nvidia earnings china chip sales