tsmc's $100 billion question: earnings preview amid ai boom

2025-04-08 tsmc

Taipei, Tuesday, 8 April 2025.
tsmc’s earnings date on april 17, 2025, has investors on edge. A surprise surge in ai-related revenue has intensified scrutiny. All eyes are on tsmc’s capital allocation strategy. The company made a massive $100 billion investment decision. Analysts are eager to see how this impacts tsmc’s financial health and future capital allocation rating. The earnings call is crucial for understanding tsmc’s next steps. Will the ai boom justify the massive investment? Or will tsmc need to revise its plans?

Cowos capacity and hbm demand

TSMC’s CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity is struggling to keep pace with demand [3]. Research indicates that TSMC’s CoWoS monthly capacity is expected to reach 40,000 wafers in 2024 and double by the end of 2025 [3]. However, the introduction of NVIDIA’s B100 and B200 chips, which require larger silicon interposers, reduces the number of chips that can be produced per 300mm wafer, exacerbating the supply shortage [3]. The increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is critical for AI model training and data center acceleration, making HBM technology essential for overcoming memory limitations [4].

hbm4 ip and tsmc’s n3p process

Creative Electronics has announced the successful tape-out of its HBM4 controller and PHY IP, utilizing TSMC’s N3P process [4]. This represents TSMC’s third-generation 3nm process, offering enhanced performance and energy efficiency compared to N3E [4]. Creative Electronics’ HBM4 IP supports data transfer rates up to 12 Gbps [4]. The HBM4 PHY achieves a 2.5x bandwidth increase, a 1.5x improvement in power efficiency, and a 2x increase in area efficiency compared to HBM3 [4]. These advancements rely on the collaboration between foundries, memory manufacturers, and IP design firms [4].

intel-tsmc potential collaboration

A proposed joint venture between Intel and TSMC to operate Intel’s U.S. wafer fabs has been met with skepticism [8]. The aim was to address Intel’s challenges in advanced process technology [8]. TSMC would hold a 20% stake in the joint venture [8]. Analysts at Citibank suggest that Intel and TSMC’s chip manufacturing processes are too different to be compatible [8]. Bank of America analysts also expressed pessimism, noting that separating Intel’s foundry business would be complex and lengthy [8].

market reaction and analyst views

Following disappointing news, TSMC experienced significant stock fluctuations [5][6]. One instance saw TSMC’s stock plummet, hitting a rare limit down [5]. This drop was triggered by Goldman Sachs lowering its target price and revising CoWoS shipment forecasts [6]. Market conditions and geopolitical factors can significantly influence investor sentiment and TSMC’s stock performance [1][GPT]. The company’s ability to navigate these challenges and capitalize on AI-driven opportunities will be critical for maintaining its market leadership [7][4].

Bronnen

earnings report ai revenue