asml anticipates sales growth surge in 2025
Veldhoven, Friday, 3 January 2025.
asml, Europe’s leading chipmaker, forecasts a potential acceleration in sales growth for 2025, despite a challenging previous year. The company faced a turbulent 2024, with earnings disappointments and a loss of its status as Europe’s largest tech firm to SAP. However, asml remains optimistic about its future, driven by a recovering semiconductor industry. The company’s revised sales projections for 2025 estimate growth between 7% and 25%, a significant improvement from the 1.4% growth expected in 2024. Analysts predict semiconductor equipment sales to reach $121 billion in 2025, up from $113 billion in 2024, indicating a positive industry trend. Despite geopolitical tensions and US export restrictions to China, asml has managed to mitigate potential impacts. This recovery could enhance asml’s market valuation, drawing significant interest from investors and positioning the company for long-term success in the semiconductor market.
Market position and financial outlook
ASML’s stock performance reflects market challenges, with shares dropping nearly 30% in the last six months of 2024, while the Euro Stoxx 600 technology index declined by just 0.75% [3]. The company projects net sales between €30 billion and €35 billion for 2025 [1][3], marking a potential growth range of 7 to 25 percent. CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged that demands were softer than initially projected [1][3], leading to a revision of the 2025 growth expectations from 45% to a mid-ten percentage [1].
Technology leadership and strategic adaptations
ASML maintains its competitive edge through advanced technology offerings, including its high-NA EUV systems priced at approximately €380 million, compared to low-NA EUV systems at €180 million [4]. While major customers TSMC and Samsung focus on optimizing existing low-NA EUV systems [4], ASML’s long-term outlook remains strong with projected revenue of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030 and anticipated gross margins between 56% and 60% [1].
Geopolitical challenges and market adaptation
Despite new US chip export restrictions to China implemented in December 2024, ASML secured an exemption [1][3]. The company has strategically reduced its Chinese business exposure to approximately 20%, down from nearly half previously [1][3]. This adaptation has been well-received by markets, with ASML’s shares rising 3% following the December announcement [1]. The company maintains a price-to-earnings ratio of 39, exceeding the industry average of 29 [1].