asml defies tariff headwinds: china sales to surge in 2025

2025-04-18 asml

Veldhoven, Friday, 18 April 2025.
despite us tariff concerns and predictions, asml expects china to account for over 25% of its sales in 2025. this projection comes as demand for mainstream chips remains robust. china’s ambition to develop homegrown euv lithography technology faces significant hurdles, with asml ceo christophe fouquet suggesting it will take ‘many, many years’ to realize. asml’s reliance on the chinese market and the challenges in china’s euv development could significantly impact asml’s revenue and stock performance.

first-quarter results and market reaction

ASML’s first-quarter net sales reached €7.742 billion [3]. This represents a 16.42 % decrease compared to the previous quarter’s €9.263 billion [3]. The company’s gross margin stood at 54%, with a net profit of €2.4 billion, a 12.55% decline from the previous quarter [3]. New orders amounted to €3.936 billion, a significant 44.47% drop [3]. This figure fell short of analyst expectations [3]. Following the earnings release, ASML’s stock experienced a downturn, with shares falling over 5% in after-hours trading [2]. The company’s market capitalization decreased by over $14 billion [3].

china’s growing significance

Despite concerns about tariffs and export restrictions, ASML anticipates that sales to China will exceed 25% of its total sales in 2025 [1]. In the first quarter of 2025, China accounted for 27% of ASML’s system sales [1]. ASML CFO Roger Dassen noted the strength of demand from Chinese clients, particularly for mainstream chips [2][4]. This demand is driven by both domestic consumption and export-oriented manufacturing [4]. ASML’s increased reliance on the Chinese market highlights the region’s growing importance in the semiconductor industry [1].

tariff impact and mitigation strategies

The recent imposition of tariffs has introduced uncertainty into the macroeconomic environment for ASML [2][5]. ASML CFO Roger Dassen outlined four categories of potential tariff impacts [4]. These include tariffs on systems exported to the U.S., tariffs on imported parts and tools used in U.S. operations, tariffs on materials imported for U.S. manufacturing, and tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. exports [4]. ASML aims to minimize the impact of tariffs by collaborating with the semiconductor ecosystem [4]. The company does not plan to move its lithography manufacturing facilities to the United States [4].

technological leadership and euv dominance

ASML remains the sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems [3]. These systems are essential for manufacturing advanced chips [3]. ASML shipped its fifth High NA EUV system, with Intel, Samsung, and TSMC among its customers [3]. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated it will take many years for China to develop a competitive EUV lithography capability [1][3]. This technological advantage reinforces ASML’s market position [3]. ASML projects revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in AI [3].

analyst perspectives and future outlook

Analysts have expressed concerns regarding ASML’s first-quarter order numbers, describing them as disappointing [3]. Citi analysts noted that tariff uncertainty casts a shadow over the company’s outlook [3]. Barclays analysts suggest ASML needs order intakes between €3 billion and €5 billion per quarter to meet market expectations [3]. Despite these concerns, ASML reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of €30 billion to €35 billion and anticipates growth in 2026 [2][3]. ASML anticipates second-quarter net sales between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, with a gross margin of 50% to 53% [3].

Bronnen

euv lithography china sales