tsmc poised for record growth? ai boom drives q1 earnings anticipation

2025-04-16 tsmc

Hsinchu, Wednesday, 16 April 2025.
analysts predict tsmc’s q1 2025 earnings, due april 17, will showcase substantial growth. this surge is fueled by potent ai momentum. revenue is expected to jump 40.5% year-over-year to $25.71 billion. net income could soar over 54%, hitting $10.7 billion. the report will reveal insights on manufacturing capacity and expansion. ai is set to triple in 2024 and double again in 2025. one research firm calls tsmc the ‘only trusted source’ for ai gpu manufacturing.

ai dominance and market leadership

TSMC’s upcoming earnings call will likely highlight its dominance in advanced chipmaking [7]. Citigroup notes that nvidia’s growth hinges on tsmc’s chip-making prowess [1]. Counterpoint Research has described tsmc as having a ‘quasi-monopoly’ in the AI infrastructure sector [1]. The company’s advancements in 2nm process technology, expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2025, could further solidify its market leadership [1]. This technology is projected to generate significant revenue starting in the first quarter of 2026 [1].

geopolitical risks and tariff impacts

Geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs pose risks to TSMC’s growth [2]. The Trump administration previously imposed a 32% tariff on Taiwanese imports, though semiconductors were temporarily exempt [7]. Bank of America Securities has factored geopolitical risks and tariff-related consumer demand uncertainty into its analysis, lowering TSMC’s 2025-2026 earnings forecasts by 4% to 5% [6]. JPMorgan Chase also anticipates that potential tariffs and a slowing global economy may lead TSMC to reduce its 2025 revenue growth guidance [4].

manufacturing capacity and expansion plans

TSMC’s manufacturing capacity and expansion plans are crucial for sustaining growth [1]. The company’s investments in the U.S. are substantial, with total commitments reaching $165 billion [7]. However, these investments may create margin pressure [7]. TSMC’s earnings call on April 17 is expected to address these pressures, along with supply chain shifts and cash flow stability [7]. Google’s potential $75 billion investment in AI infrastructure in 2025 underscores the demand for advanced chip manufacturing [1].

analyst views and stock performance

Wall Street analysts maintain a ‘strong buy’ consensus rating on TSMC stock [2]. The average price target is $240.83 [2]. Despite this positive outlook, some analysts have adjusted their price targets [2][4]. JPMorgan Chase lowered its target to NT$1,300 from NT$1,500 [2][4]. Bank of America Securities also reduced its target to $240 from $265 [6]. TSMC’s stock has shown considerable growth, rising 12% over the past year and 22% year-to-date [2][7]. Options traders anticipate a 6.9% move in either direction following the earnings release [2].

Bronnen

q1 earnings ai growth