is tsmc next? us regulatory actions spark strategy rethink

2025-09-08 tsmc

taipei, Monday, 8 September 2025.
a taiwanese analyst suggests tsmc should prepare for potential us regulatory pressure. this warning follows actions against south korean firms, specifically a hyundai plant raid in georgia. the analyst, weng lüzhong, highlights how immigration enforcement was seemingly used to extract concessions. this raises concerns that the us could employ similar tactics against tsmc, potentially impacting its operations and strategic decisions. could tsmc be forced to make unwanted concessions to maintain access to the us market?

nanjing facility faces restrictions

The us government is set to revoke tsmc’s validated end user (veu) status for its nanjing, china, facility by december 31, 2025 [7]. This change means that us suppliers will need individual export licenses for each shipment to the plant [7]. These restrictions could lead to equipment shortages and production delays for the nanjing facility [2]. Macquarie Capital’s arthur lai suggests tsmc might divert equipment from its japan kumamoto plant to nanjing and accelerate material stockpiling before the deadline [2].

limited impact, broader concerns

Analysts believe the immediate impact on tsmc’s overall operations will be limited [2]. The nanjing plant accounts for approximately 3% of tsmc’s total production capacity and primarily produces chips using older 16nm and 28nm technologies [2][7]. Morningstar senior equity analyst phelix lee notes that the revenue contribution from this facility is relatively low, minimizing the impact on tsmc’s profitability [2]. Saxo singapore’s chief investment strategist charu chanana suggests the us aims to freeze china’s chip production expansion [2].

strategic adjustments and market dynamics

Tsmc is evaluating contingency plans to ensure uninterrupted operations at its nanjing facility [1][7]. Citi research analyst kevin chen suggests that chinese companies may benefit from increased demand as foreign shipments face restrictions [2]. Charu chanana warns that excessive us pressure could backfire, accelerating china’s domestic semiconductor innovation [2]. Tsmc is expanding its global manufacturing footprint, including significant investments in arizona, europe and the uae, to diversify production risks and reduce reliance on any single region [7].

geopolitical factors and taiwan’s energy security

Us senators have introduced a bipartisan bill to increase liquefied natural gas (lng) exports to taiwan and strengthen its energy infrastructure [8]. This legislation aims to bolster taiwan’s energy security amid growing pressure from china [8]. Republican pete ricketts stated that taiwan’s reliance on energy imports makes it vulnerable to coercive actions [8]. The bill encourages taiwan to maintain nuclear power and adopt new technologies like small modular reactors, with us support [8].

apple’s influence and supply chain resilience

Apple is expected to unveil its iphone 17 series, which could stimulate the global consumer electronics market and boost taiwan’s technology supply chain [3]. Tsmc and hon hai are scheduled to hold investor conferences, providing insights into their strategies and outlook [3]. Largan reported a nine-month high in august revenue, reflecting strong demand for high-end lens products [3]. These factors collectively highlight taiwan’s crucial role in the global technology supply chain and the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on its leading companies [3].

Bronnen

geopolitics tsmc